16
HRs allowed
11.7%
HR rate (pool)
11.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.02
FIP
3.51
xFIP
-0.48
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
35
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 35th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 113.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Payton Tolle.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
48.5%
79.9
35.2°
4
-0.8
Sinker Hard
22.0%
83.9
15.8°
1
+0.4
Cutter Hard
18.0%
81.1
22.6°
1
-1.8
Curveball Breaking
8.2%
84.4
13.1°
1
-1.3
Changeup Offspeed
3.3%
88.6
28.2°
1
-2.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups137
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate11.7%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB11.1% 35
HR/9—
FIP3.02 15
xFIP3.51
FIP − xFIP-0.48 20
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 48.5% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.9 mph
Avg launch angle35.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches617
Sinker
Hard · 22.0% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle15.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches280
Cutter
Hard · 18.0% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.1 mph
Avg launch angle22.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches229
Curveball
Breaking · 8.2% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches104
Changeup
Offspeed · 3.3% usage
-2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.6 mph
Avg launch angle28.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches42
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Payton Tolle.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 396 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
8
1
109.8
2026-07-07
8
0
102.4
2026-07-01
9
3
112.3
2026-06-26
7
0
107.9
2026-06-21
7
1
103.7
2026-06-16
8
3
109.2
2026-06-09
9
0
113.6
2026-06-03
9
0
105.6
2026-05-28
9
3
109.6
2026-05-22
9
2
109.4
2026-05-16
9
1
111.2
2026-05-10
9
1
107.5
2026-05-09
9
0
—
2026-05-04
9
0
111.7
2026-04-28
9
0
104.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Payton Tolle isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.