12
HRs allowed
17.1%
HR rate (pool)
19.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.35
FIP
3.84
xFIP
+0.51
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
86
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 86th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 392 ft
max EV allowed 111.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 9 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Spencer Strider.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
47.6%
84.9
32.5°
5
+1.2
Slider Breaking
27.6%
81.6
15.0°
3
+1.3
Curveball Breaking
14.5%
78.8
19.6°
1
+0.1
Changeup Offspeed
10.3%
83.0
20.2°
0
-1.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups70
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate17.1%
Pool HR/game day1.5
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB19.0% 86
HR/9—
FIP4.35 62
xFIP3.84
FIP − xFIP+0.51 74
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 47.6% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle32.5°
HRs allowed5
Pitches329
Slider
Breaking · 27.6% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle15.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches191
Curveball
Breaking · 14.5% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle19.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches100
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.3% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle20.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches71
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Spencer Strider.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 392 ft
9 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-12
8
2
109.1
2026-06-06
8
0
108.5
2026-05-31
9
1
111.5
2026-05-26
9
3
111.7
2026-05-21
9
2
105.6
2026-05-15
9
1
104.7
2026-05-09
9
1
106.7
2026-05-03
9
2
105.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Spencer Strider isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.