9
HRs allowed
12.3%
HR rate (pool)
33.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.9
FIP
3.61
xFIP
+1.29
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
99
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 99th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.6 EV · 383 ft
max EV allowed 115.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jared Jones.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
45.0%
83.5
26.3°
3
-0.9
Slider Breaking
30.9%
86.3
16.6°
1
-1.2
Changeup Offspeed
14.7%
88.8
0.5°
1
+1.5
Curveball Breaking
9.4%
84.4
-3.5°
0
+3.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups73
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate12.3%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB33.7% 99
HR/9—
FIP4.9 78
xFIP3.61
FIP − xFIP+1.29 95
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-20
Fastball
Hard · 45.0% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches293
Slider
Breaking · 30.9% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle16.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches201
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.7% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.8 mph
Avg launch angle0.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches96
Curveball
Breaking · 9.4% usage
+3.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle-3.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches61
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jared Jones.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.6 EV · 383 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-18
9
1
103.9
2026-07-17
7
0
—
2026-07-08
8
1
106.3
2026-07-02
8
0
106.1
2026-06-27
8
2
107.0
2026-06-21
8
1
107.9
2026-06-15
8
2
112.0
2026-06-10
8
1
103.9
2026-06-04
9
1
115.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jared Jones isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.