9
HRs allowed
11.0%
HR rate (pool)
28.1%
Overall HR/FB
6.77
FIP
5.11
xFIP
+1.66
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
96
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 96th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
62.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.5 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 112.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Nick Lodolo.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
26.7%
84.9
30.1°
4
+1.6
Sinker Hard
25.6%
86.9
21.6°
5
+1.1
Curveball Breaking
24.0%
78.7
15.4°
0
+0.9
Changeup Offspeed
23.7%
81.3
10.6°
1
-1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups82
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate11.0%
Pool HR/game day0.9
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB28.1% 96
HR/9—
FIP6.77 97
xFIP5.11
FIP − xFIP+1.66 97
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed62.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 26.7% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle30.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches293
Sinker
Hard · 25.6% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.9 mph
Avg launch angle21.6°
HRs allowed5
Pitches281
Curveball
Breaking · 24.0% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle15.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches263
Changeup
Offspeed · 23.7% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle10.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches260
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Nick Lodolo.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.5 EV · 402 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
9
2
104.3
2026-07-05
9
0
106.7
2026-06-29
8
1
105.8
2026-06-23
8
0
107.6
2026-06-17
7
0
109.0
2026-06-12
7
0
103.6
2026-06-06
7
1
109.8
2026-05-31
9
2
112.0
2026-05-25
9
1
108.1
2026-05-18
9
2
108.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Nick Lodolo isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.