10
HRs allowed
18.5%
HR rate (pool)
28.8%
Overall HR/FB
6.24
FIP
5.35
xFIP
+0.88
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
97
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 97th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed
58.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.8 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 108.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Matt Waldron.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Knuckleball Other
30.5%
83.2
8.7°
2
+2.4
Cutter Hard
20.5%
77.0
19.6°
0
-2.1
Fastball Hard
18.5%
83.5
33.8°
2
+2.7
Sinker Hard
16.1%
83.2
11.0°
1
+1.0
Sweeper Breaking
14.4%
83.1
18.1°
2
+3.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups54
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate18.5%
Pool HR/game day1.67
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB28.8% 97
HR/9—
FIP6.24 95
xFIP5.35
FIP − xFIP+0.88 88
Barrel% allowed16.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed58.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Knuckleball
Other · 30.5% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle8.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches201
Cutter
Hard · 20.5% usage
-2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches135
Fastball
Hard · 18.5% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle33.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches122
Sinker
Hard · 16.1% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle11.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches106
Sweeper
Breaking · 14.4% usage
+3.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle18.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches95
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Matt Waldron.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.8 EV · 389 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 6 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-26
9
4
108.8
2026-05-12
9
0
105.8
2026-05-06
9
1
105.8
2026-04-29
9
2
105.4
2026-04-23
9
1
106.2
2026-04-17
9
2
104.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Matt Waldron isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Matt Waldron isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
4
44%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Matt Waldron
How many home runs has Matt Waldron allowed this season?
Matt Waldron has allowed 10 home runs across 6 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Matt Waldron?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Matt Waldron include Cole Carrigg (1), Connor Norby (1), Hunter Goodman (1) and 8 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.