6
HRs allowed
13.3%
HR rate (pool)
31.0%
Overall HR/FB
6.49
FIP
5.52
xFIP
+0.98
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
98
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 98th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
55.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.5 EV · 376 ft
max EV allowed 106.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Matt Waldron.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Knuckleball Other
29.8%
82.2
7.9°
2
+2.3
Fastball Hard
19.8%
84.6
33.2°
1
+2.7
Cutter Hard
18.7%
75.1
18.7°
0
-2.6
Sinker Hard
17.2%
83.9
12.4°
1
+2.3
Sweeper Breaking
14.6%
80.8
20.1°
1
+2.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups45
HRs allowed (pool)6
Pool HR rate13.3%
Pool HR/game day1.2
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB31.0% 98
HR/9—
FIP6.49 96
xFIP5.52
FIP − xFIP+0.98 89
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed55.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Knuckleball
Other · 29.8% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle7.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches137
Fastball
Hard · 19.8% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle33.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches91
Cutter
Hard · 18.7% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.1 mph
Avg launch angle18.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches86
Sinker
Hard · 17.2% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle12.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches79
Sweeper
Breaking · 14.6% usage
+2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle20.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches67
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Matt Waldron.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
6 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.5 EV · 376 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-12
9
0
105.8
2026-05-06
9
1
105.8
2026-04-29
9
2
105.4
2026-04-23
9
1
106.2
2026-04-17
9
2
104.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Matt Waldron isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.