12
HRs allowed
10.5%
HR rate (pool)
25.6%
Overall HR/FB
5.27
FIP
4.0
xFIP
+1.27
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.1 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 113.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Tyler Mahle.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
48.2%
82.8
29.6°
6
-0.6
Splitter Offspeed
25.2%
80.2
4.8°
3
+1.9
Cutter Hard
15.2%
84.3
22.2°
2
-0.8
Slider Breaking
10.2%
83.9
15.8°
1
+4.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups114
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate10.5%
Pool HR/game day0.92
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB25.6% 95
HR/9—
FIP5.27 85
xFIP4.0
FIP − xFIP+1.27 94
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 48.2% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle29.6°
HRs allowed6
Pitches626
Splitter
Offspeed · 25.2% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.2 mph
Avg launch angle4.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches327
Cutter
Hard · 15.2% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle22.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches198
Slider
Breaking · 10.2% usage
+4.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle15.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches132
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Tyler Mahle.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.1 EV · 404 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
9
1
110.5
2026-07-05
9
1
105.8
2026-06-29
7
2
112.0
2026-06-24
8
0
109.7
2026-05-26
9
2
113.7
2026-05-20
9
1
107.1
2026-05-15
9
2
108.2
2026-05-10
9
2
110.2
2026-05-03
9
0
110.5
2026-04-28
9
0
107.2
2026-04-22
9
0
107.9
2026-04-08
9
0
101.0
2026-03-28
9
1
105.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Tyler Mahle isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.