0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
17.5%
Overall HR/FB
5.31
FIP
4.56
xFIP
#4
Leakiest SP today (of 26, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
83
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 83th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 53.6%
BRK 31.7%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 6 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
28.2%
77.3
26.5°
0
-3.5
Fastball Hard
25.4%
75.8
19.7°
0
-6.1
Sweeper Breaking
16.9%
81.3
42.5°
1
+5.4
Curveball Breaking
14.8%
86.6
-0.7°
0
-0.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB17.5% 83
HR/9—
FIP5.31 85
xFIP4.56
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-03
Cutter
Hard · 28.2% usage
-3.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.3 mph
Avg launch angle26.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches40
Fastball
Hard · 25.4% usage
-6.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.8 mph
Avg launch angle19.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches36
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.9% usage
+5.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle42.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches24
Curveball
Breaking · 14.8% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle-0.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches21
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Jose Cabrera.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Chase Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.933
Wind
4 mph from W
Temp
79°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
9:45p
4
79°
-1
10:45p
4
79°
-1
11:45p
4
79°
-1
12:45a
4
79°
-1
1:45a
4
79°
-1
-1
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 4 mph from W
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.