1
HRs allowed
12.5%
HR rate (pool)
25.0%
Overall HR/FB
8.65
FIP
6.96
xFIP
+1.69
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 108.4 EV · 366 ft
max EV allowed 108.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Mitch Spence.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
38.0%
86.7
16.1°
1
+1.0
Slider Breaking
20.0%
83.1
14.6°
1
+9.2
Sinker Hard
17.0%
86.5
24.5°
0
+5.4
Curveball Breaking
16.5%
91.1
13.9°
1
+9.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups8
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate12.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB25.0% 95
HR/9—
FIP8.65 100
xFIP6.96
FIP − xFIP+1.69 97
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Cutter
Hard · 38.0% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.7 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches76
Slider
Breaking · 20.0% usage
+9.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle14.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches40
Sinker
Hard · 17.0% usage
+5.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle24.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches34
Curveball
Breaking · 16.5% usage
+9.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against91.1 mph
Avg launch angle13.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches33
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Mitch Spence.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 108.4 EV · 366 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-15
8
1
108.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Mitch Spence isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Mitch Spence isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.