Mitch Spence
RHP
KC
1
HRs Allowed
12.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
25.0%
Overall HR/FB
8.65
FIP
6.96
xFIP
+1.69
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
25.0%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
95th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
87.5%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
8.65
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
100th pctile
6.96
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+1.69
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
96th pctile
12.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
8
Pool Matchups
1
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
12.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 99.5mph | 108.4mph | 22.0° | 366ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 99.5mph | 108.4mph | 22.0° | 366ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 30 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 99.5mph | 108.4mph | 22.0° | 366ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
99.5
Avg Max EV
108.4
Max EV Allowed
7
Hard-Hit Proxy · 87.5%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
108.4
Avg HR EV
22.0°
Avg HR Launch
366
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Dylan Crews | 108.4mph | 108.4mph | 22° | 366ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-15 | James Wood | 108.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Daylen Lile | 103.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Keibert Ruiz | 101.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Curtis Mead | 100.0mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Dylan Crews | #56 | 53 | Nationals Park | 108.4mph | 22.0° | 366ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 54 | 36.7% | -1.3 | 87.6 | 8.9° | 0 |
| Sinker | 30 | 20.4% | +3.0 | 85.3 | 24.9° | 0 |
| Slider | 28 | 19.0% | +5.0 | 81.7 | 7.5° | 0 |
| Curveball | 20 | 13.6% | +8.5 | 91.7 | 15.7° | 1 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
87.5%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Nasim Nuñez | #147 | 18 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Daylen Lile | #78 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Keibert Ruiz | #72 | 47 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Dylan Crews | #56 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-15 | Jacob Young | #49 | 55 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Curtis Mead | #33 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | CJ Abrams | #23 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | James Wood | #6 | 74 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |