1
HRs allowed
12.5%
HR rate (pool)
25.0%
Overall HR/FB
8.65
FIP
6.96
xFIP
+1.69
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
12.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 108.4 EV · 366 ft
max EV allowed 108.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Mitch Spence.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups8
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate12.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB25.0% 95
HR/9—
FIP8.65 100
xFIP6.96
FIP − xFIP+1.69 97
Barrel% allowed12.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-22
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Mitch Spence.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 108.4 EV · 366 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-15
8
1
108.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Mitch Spence isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Mitch Spence isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Mitch Spence
How many home runs has Mitch Spence allowed this season?
Mitch Spence has allowed 1 home run across 1 scored game day in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Mitch Spence?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Mitch Spence include Austin Riley (1), Drake Baldwin (1), Dylan Crews (1) and 9 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.