12
HRs allowed
10.5%
HR rate (pool)
28.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.42
FIP
4.11
xFIP
+1.31
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
96
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 96th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.1 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 113.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Griffin Jax.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
26.0%
80.7
17.2°
3
-1.3
Changeup Offspeed
22.4%
79.6
-1.9°
1
-0.3
Sinker Hard
20.1%
82.7
10.3°
2
+0.4
Fastball Hard
17.9%
85.8
34.4°
4
+2.2
Curveball Breaking
8.9%
82.8
17.0°
0
-1.4
Cutter Hard
4.7%
84.1
19.4°
2
+1.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups114
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate10.5%
Pool HR/game day0.86
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB28.1% 96
HR/9—
FIP5.42 87
xFIP4.11
FIP − xFIP+1.31 95
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sweeper
Breaking · 26.0% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle17.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches276
Changeup
Offspeed · 22.4% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.6 mph
Avg launch angle-1.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches238
Sinker
Hard · 20.1% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle10.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches213
Fastball
Hard · 17.9% usage
+2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle34.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches190
Curveball
Breaking · 8.9% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle17.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches94
Cutter
Hard · 4.7% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches50
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Griffin Jax.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.1 EV · 394 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
0
109.1
2026-07-06
8
2
107.2
2026-06-30
7
1
106.2
2026-06-24
6
0
113.0
2026-06-19
8
1
106.2
2026-06-13
6
0
108.5
2026-06-07
8
0
103.7
2026-06-01
9
4
109.2
2026-05-26
9
1
109.7
2026-05-19
9
1
108.7
2026-05-13
9
1
104.1
2026-05-07
9
0
111.9
2026-05-02
9
0
107.9
2026-04-26
9
1
106.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Griffin Jax isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.