10
HRs allowed
11.2%
HR rate (pool)
17.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.71
FIP
4.09
xFIP
+0.62
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
82
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 82th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.8 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 113.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chris Paddack.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
34.1%
81.5
33.6°
2
+0.8
Changeup Offspeed
27.0%
80.8
6.9°
1
+0.1
Cutter Hard
13.4%
84.0
19.7°
3
+3.1
Curveball Breaking
11.5%
85.9
9.5°
2
+2.0
Sweeper Breaking
7.6%
78.6
22.6°
1
+0.3
Sinker Hard
6.3%
84.4
29.0°
0
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups89
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate11.2%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups16
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB17.5% 82
HR/9—
FIP4.71 72
xFIP4.09
FIP − xFIP+0.62 78
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 34.1% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle33.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches361
Changeup
Offspeed · 27.0% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle6.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches286
Cutter
Hard · 13.4% usage
+3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches142
Curveball
Breaking · 11.5% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.9 mph
Avg launch angle9.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches122
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.6% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.6 mph
Avg launch angle22.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches81
Sinker
Hard · 6.3% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle29.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches67
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chris Paddack.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.8 EV · 395 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-29
9
1
113.3
2026-05-23
9
1
112.1
2026-05-22
9
0
—
2026-05-16
9
1
102.9
2026-05-03
9
1
107.5
2026-04-27
9
0
109.5
2026-04-21
9
1
109.3
2026-04-15
9
3
109.6
2026-04-10
8
1
105.7
2026-04-05
9
1
110.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chris Paddack isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.