FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-07-04T11:00:45-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-07-04

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	6.49	1.82	+4.68	-1.47	3	17.6%	17
2	Steven Cruz	EVEN	6.76	3.66	+3.10	+0.00	4	57.1%	7
3	Luis Gil	EVEN	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
4	Kyle Backhus	EVEN	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
5	Zack Littell	EVEN	7.55	5.36	+2.19	-0.09	20	16.7%	120
6	Taijuan Walker	EVEN	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
7	Max Scherzer	EVEN	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
8	Nick Lodolo	EVEN	7.12	5.19	+1.93	-0.15	7	10.9%	64
9	Brayan Bello	+1	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
10	Ryan Weiss	+1	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
11	Germán Márquez	+2	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
12	Mitch Spence	+2	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
13	Miles Mikolas	-4	6.41	4.73	+1.68	-0.13	6	8.7%	69
14	Jared Jones	-2	5.36	3.75	+1.61	-0.11	7	14.3%	49
15	Cole Ragans	EVEN	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
16	Jameson Taillon	EVEN	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
17	JR Ritchie	+1	5.86	4.40	+1.45	+0.00	8	16.3%	49
18	Tyler Mahle	-1	5.38	3.98	+1.40	-0.06	10	10.4%	96
19	Kodai Senga	EVEN	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.00	9	11.4%	79
20	Brady Singer	+4	5.75	4.40	+1.35	+0.04	25	18.5%	135
21	Griffin Jax	-1	5.56	4.23	+1.33	-0.03	10	10.2%	98
22	David Sandlin	+1	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.00	3	12.0%	25
23	Merrill Kelly	-2	6.83	5.52	+1.31	-0.02	13	12.9%	101
24	Brandon Sproat	-2	5.93	4.63	+1.30	-0.02	19	13.6%	140
25	Nathan Eovaldi	EVEN	4.72	3.48	+1.24	-0.04	16	10.9%	147
26	Roki Sasaki	EVEN	5.94	4.73	+1.21	-0.02	12	10.9%	110
27	Blake Snell	+1	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
28	Trey Gibson	+1	6.20	5.05	+1.15	+0.00	8	18.6%	43
29	Griffin Canning	+1	5.10	3.96	+1.14	+0.02	8	10.1%	79
30	Eric Lauer	+1	6.53	5.45	+1.08	-0.02	14	14.7%	95
31	Garrett Crochet	+1	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
32	Tyler Holton	+1	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
33	Matt Waldron	+1	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
34	Ryan Johnson	-7	6.30	5.32	+0.97	-0.26	4	11.8%	34
35	Kyle Freeland	EVEN	5.26	4.33	+0.92	-0.01	12	9.4%	127
36	Matthew Liberatore	EVEN	5.35	4.48	+0.86	+0.01	15	11.6%	129
37	Ryan Weathers	EVEN	3.80	2.95	+0.84	+0.01	14	10.1%	138
38	Mike Burrows	+1	5.15	4.33	+0.82	+0.01	21	15.4%	136
39	Cionel Pérez	NEW	4.67	3.86	+0.81	·	1	12.5%	8
40	Emmet Sheehan	EVEN	4.28	3.48	+0.80	+0.00	21	18.8%	112
41	Aaron Nola	EVEN	4.44	3.64	+0.80	+0.02	17	12.6%	135
42	Tatsuya Imai	-4	5.46	4.66	+0.80	-0.03	9	11.8%	76
43	Gavin Williams	EVEN	4.02	3.25	+0.77	+0.00	14	8.5%	164
44	Michael Lorenzen	-2	5.07	4.31	+0.77	-0.01	13	8.6%	151
45	Jose Cabrera	NEW	5.31	4.56	+0.75	·	1	12.5%	8
46	Kyle Leahy	-2	5.09	4.40	+0.69	-0.04	16	11.0%	146
47	Tomoyuki Sugano	-1	5.27	4.62	+0.65	+0.00	17	12.2%	139
48	Ryan Feltner	-3	5.12	4.49	+0.63	-0.10	13	12.3%	106
49	Chris Paddack	EVEN	4.71	4.09	+0.62	+0.00	10	11.2%	89
50	Drew Rasmussen	-3	3.58	2.98	+0.61	-0.03	20	12.8%	156

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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