28
HRs allowed
12.3%
HR rate (pool)
20.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.43
FIP
3.01
xFIP
+0.42
FIP − xFIP gap
#18
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
21.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.0 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 113.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 80.8%
OFF 12.5%
BRK 6.7%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 6 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (80.8% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
29.1%
81.3
13.6°
5
-0.7
Fastball Hard
28.8%
81.9
30.4°
6
-0.5
Sinker Hard
22.9%
82.2
17.6°
2
-2.7
Changeup Offspeed
12.5%
81.9
-2.5°
0
-2.2
Curveball Breaking
3.8%
85.2
16.4°
0
-2.7
Sweeper Breaking
2.9%
84.2
18.6°
0
+2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups228
HRs allowed (pool)28
Pool HR rate12.3%
Pool HR/game day1.04
Top-15 matchups11
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB20.3% 87
HR/9—
FIP3.43 27
xFIP3.01
FIP − xFIP+0.42 73
Barrel% allowed21.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Cutter
Hard · 29.1% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle13.6°
HRs allowed5
Pitches633
Fastball
Hard · 28.8% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle30.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches627
Sinker
Hard · 22.9% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle17.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches497
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.5% usage
-2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle-2.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches272
Curveball
Breaking · 3.8% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches83
Sweeper
Breaking · 2.9% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle18.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches62
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
28 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.0 EV · 399 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-24
8
0
103.7
2026-08-19
8
1
103.5
2026-08-12
8
2
108.4
2026-08-07
7
1
107.0
2026-08-01
9
0
111.9
2026-07-26
9
0
102.1
2026-07-21
7
0
108.6
2026-07-09
8
2
105.3
2026-07-04
8
2
108.3
2026-06-28
8
1
106.3
2026-06-22
8
0
109.2
2026-06-16
7
1
106.9
2026-06-10
9
2
107.7
2026-06-05
9
0
105.1
2026-05-30
9
4
113.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Tropicana Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.081
Wind
0 mph from —
Temp
—
Roof
—
TimeWindTempFIT
1:40p
0
—
+2
2:40p
0
—
+2
3:40p
0
—
+2
4:40p
0
—
+2
5:40p
0
—
+2
+2
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 0 mph
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
315ft
short
CF
404ft
avg
RF
322ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
340ft
6 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
345ft
10 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: LF 315 ft
HRs allowed avg 399 ft · n=28
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
111
15
14%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
8
2
25%
18
1
6%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Drew Rasmussen
Is Drew Rasmussen likely to give up a home run tonight?
Drew Rasmussen pitches tonight (SD @ TB at Tropicana Field). This season he has allowed 28 home runs across 27 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Drew Rasmussen allowed this season?
Drew Rasmussen has allowed 28 home runs across 27 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Drew Rasmussen?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Drew Rasmussen include Aaron Judge (2), Austin Wells (2), Cal Raleigh (2) and 48 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.