FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-07-18T11:00:33-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-07-18

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	6.23	2.41	+3.83	-0.06	7	21.2%	33
2	Shane Bieber	EVEN	9.12	5.51	+3.61	+0.00	4	28.6%	14
3	Hunter Greene	EVEN	6.82	4.04	+2.78	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
4	Luis Gil	EVEN	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
5	Steven Cruz	EVEN	6.31	3.60	+2.71	+0.00	4	26.7%	15
6	Kyle Backhus	EVEN	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
7	Zack Littell	EVEN	7.55	5.36	+2.19	+0.00	20	16.7%	120
8	Taijuan Walker	EVEN	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
9	Max Scherzer	EVEN	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
10	Brayan Bello	EVEN	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
11	Ryan Weiss	EVEN	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
12	Mitch Spence	EVEN	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
13	Nick Lodolo	EVEN	6.77	5.11	+1.66	+0.00	9	11.0%	82
14	Miles Mikolas	+1	6.28	4.68	+1.59	+0.00	9	11.7%	77
15	Cole Ragans	+1	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
16	Jameson Taillon	+1	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
17	Germán Márquez	-3	6.38	4.91	+1.47	-0.13	8	11.9%	67
18	JR Ritchie	+1	5.86	4.40	+1.45	+0.00	8	16.3%	49
19	Jared Jones	-1	5.06	3.67	+1.40	-0.10	8	12.5%	64
20	Kodai Senga	EVEN	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.00	9	11.4%	79
21	Brady Singer	EVEN	5.76	4.39	+1.36	+0.00	26	17.2%	151
22	David Sandlin	EVEN	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.00	3	12.0%	25
23	Merrill Kelly	EVEN	6.76	5.44	+1.31	+0.00	17	13.9%	122
24	Griffin Jax	EVEN	5.35	4.06	+1.29	-0.02	15	12.2%	123
25	Tyler Mahle	EVEN	5.27	4.00	+1.27	+0.00	12	10.5%	114
26	Brandon Sproat	EVEN	5.75	4.51	+1.24	+0.00	20	12.0%	166
27	JP Sears	EVEN	6.25	5.01	+1.24	+0.00	5	21.7%	23
28	Nathan Eovaldi	EVEN	4.69	3.47	+1.22	+0.00	16	10.3%	156
29	Roki Sasaki	EVEN	5.92	4.69	+1.22	+0.01	14	11.0%	127
30	Blake Snell	EVEN	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
31	Trey Gibson	EVEN	6.20	5.05	+1.15	+0.00	8	18.6%	43
32	Griffin Canning	EVEN	5.11	4.00	+1.11	+0.00	9	10.6%	85
33	Garrett Crochet	EVEN	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
34	Eric Lauer	EVEN	6.49	5.45	+1.04	+0.00	15	14.4%	104
35	Tyler Holton	EVEN	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
36	Matt Waldron	EVEN	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
37	Cionel Pérez	EVEN	4.75	3.80	+0.96	+0.00	3	18.8%	16
38	Ryan Johnson	EVEN	5.95	5.00	+0.95	+0.00	7	14.3%	49
39	Jose Cabrera	EVEN	5.61	4.66	+0.94	+0.00	1	7.1%	14
40	Hurston Waldrep	EVEN	5.48	4.55	+0.93	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
41	Kyle Freeland	EVEN	5.20	4.31	+0.89	+0.00	14	9.7%	144
42	Ryan Weathers	EVEN	3.85	2.98	+0.87	+0.00	16	10.3%	155
43	Aaron Nola	+1	4.53	3.68	+0.85	+0.01	22	13.9%	158
44	Matthew Liberatore	-1	5.30	4.45	+0.85	+0.00	16	11.0%	145
45	Mike Burrows	EVEN	5.16	4.34	+0.82	+0.00	24	16.7%	144
46	Tatsuya Imai	EVEN	5.41	4.60	+0.82	+0.00	10	11.9%	84
47	Emmet Sheehan	EVEN	4.31	3.52	+0.79	-0.01	23	18.1%	127
48	Gavin Williams	EVEN	4.01	3.23	+0.78	+0.00	15	8.4%	178
49	Brandon Pfaadt	EVEN	5.20	4.42	+0.78	+0.00	3	7.3%	41
50	Michael Lorenzen	EVEN	5.07	4.33	+0.74	-0.01	14	8.3%	168

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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