FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_14 - 2026-07-06T14:00:46-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-07-06

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	6.49	1.82	+4.68	-1.47	3	17.6%	17
2	Shane Bieber	NEW	8.93	5.40	+3.53	·	3	37.5%	8
3	Steven Cruz	-1	6.76	3.66	+3.10	+0.00	4	57.1%	7
4	Luis Gil	-1	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
5	Kyle Backhus	-1	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
6	Zack Littell	-1	7.55	5.36	+2.19	+0.00	20	16.7%	120
7	Taijuan Walker	-1	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
8	Max Scherzer	-1	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
9	Nick Lodolo	-1	6.94	5.15	+1.79	-0.14	7	9.6%	73
10	Brayan Bello	-1	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
11	Ryan Weiss	-1	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
12	Germán Márquez	EVEN	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
13	Mitch Spence	EVEN	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
14	Miles Mikolas	EVEN	6.41	4.73	+1.68	+0.00	6	8.7%	69
15	Jared Jones	-4	5.36	3.75	+1.61	-0.11	7	14.3%	49
16	Cole Ragans	-1	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
17	Jameson Taillon	-1	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
18	JR Ritchie	-1	5.86	4.40	+1.45	+0.00	8	16.3%	49
19	Kodai Senga	EVEN	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.00	9	11.4%	79
20	Brady Singer	+1	5.75	4.40	+1.35	+0.02	25	18.5%	135
21	Tyler Mahle	-3	5.33	4.00	+1.34	-0.06	11	10.5%	105
22	Griffin Jax	-2	5.56	4.23	+1.33	-0.03	10	10.2%	98
23	David Sandlin	EVEN	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.00	3	12.0%	25
24	Merrill Kelly	EVEN	6.81	5.50	+1.31	+0.00	15	13.8%	109
25	Brandon Sproat	-3	5.87	4.58	+1.28	-0.04	19	12.8%	148
26	Nathan Eovaldi	-1	4.72	3.48	+1.24	-0.04	16	10.9%	147
27	Roki Sasaki	-1	5.94	4.73	+1.21	-0.02	12	10.9%	110
28	Blake Snell	-1	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
29	Trey Gibson	-1	6.20	5.05	+1.15	+0.00	8	18.6%	43
30	JP Sears	NEW	6.32	5.17	+1.15	·	4	25.0%	16
31	Griffin Canning	-2	5.10	3.96	+1.14	+0.00	8	10.1%	79
32	Eric Lauer	-2	6.53	5.45	+1.08	+0.00	14	14.7%	95
33	Garrett Crochet	-2	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
34	Tyler Holton	-2	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
35	Matt Waldron	-2	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
36	Kyle Freeland	-1	5.26	4.33	+0.92	-0.01	12	9.4%	127
37	Ryan Johnson	-3	6.04	5.14	+0.89	-0.08	6	14.6%	41
38	Matthew Liberatore	-2	5.32	4.46	+0.86	+0.01	15	10.9%	137
39	Ryan Weathers	-2	3.83	2.97	+0.86	+0.02	14	9.5%	147
40	Aaron Nola	+2	4.49	3.66	+0.83	+0.03	17	12.0%	142
41	Mike Burrows	-2	5.15	4.33	+0.82	+0.01	21	15.4%	136
42	Cionel Pérez	-2	4.67	3.86	+0.81	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
43	Emmet Sheehan	-2	4.30	3.50	+0.80	+0.00	22	18.5%	119
44	Tatsuya Imai	-6	5.46	4.66	+0.80	-0.03	9	11.8%	76
45	Gavin Williams	-1	4.02	3.25	+0.77	+0.00	14	8.5%	164
46	Michael Lorenzen	-3	5.07	4.31	+0.77	-0.01	13	8.6%	151
47	Jose Cabrera	NEW	5.31	4.56	+0.75	·	1	12.5%	8
48	Tomoyuki Sugano	-1	5.27	4.62	+0.65	+0.00	17	12.2%	139
49	Kyle Leahy	-4	5.03	4.38	+0.65	-0.04	16	10.4%	154
50	Ryan Feltner	-4	5.12	4.49	+0.63	-0.04	13	12.3%	106

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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