FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-07-12T11:00:28-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-07-12

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	6.04	2.15	+3.89	-0.79	7	26.9%	26
2	Shane Bieber	EVEN	9.12	5.51	+3.61	+0.08	4	28.6%	14
3	Hunter Greene	NEW	6.82	4.04	+2.78	·	0	0.0%	9
4	Luis Gil	EVEN	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
5	Steven Cruz	-2	6.31	3.60	+2.71	-0.39	4	26.7%	15
6	Kyle Backhus	-1	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
7	Zack Littell	-1	7.55	5.36	+2.19	+0.00	20	16.7%	120
8	Taijuan Walker	-1	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
9	Max Scherzer	-1	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
10	Brayan Bello	EVEN	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
11	Ryan Weiss	EVEN	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
12	Mitch Spence	+1	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
13	Nick Lodolo	-4	6.77	5.11	+1.66	-0.13	9	11.0%	82
14	Germán Márquez	-2	6.46	4.85	+1.60	-0.11	6	10.0%	60
15	Miles Mikolas	-1	6.28	4.68	+1.59	-0.09	9	11.7%	77
16	Cole Ragans	EVEN	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
17	Jameson Taillon	EVEN	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
18	Jared Jones	-3	5.23	3.72	+1.50	-0.11	8	14.0%	57
19	JR Ritchie	-1	5.86	4.40	+1.45	+0.00	8	16.3%	49
20	Kodai Senga	-1	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.00	9	11.4%	79
21	Brady Singer	-1	5.76	4.40	+1.36	+0.01	25	17.6%	142
22	David Sandlin	+1	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.00	3	12.0%	25
23	Merrill Kelly	+1	6.79	5.47	+1.31	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
24	Griffin Jax	-2	5.42	4.11	+1.31	-0.02	12	10.5%	114
25	Tyler Mahle	-4	5.27	4.00	+1.27	-0.07	12	10.5%	114
26	Brandon Sproat	-1	5.75	4.51	+1.24	-0.04	20	12.0%	166
27	JP Sears	+3	6.25	5.01	+1.24	+0.09	5	21.7%	23
28	Nathan Eovaldi	-2	4.69	3.47	+1.22	-0.02	16	10.3%	156
29	Roki Sasaki	-2	5.92	4.71	+1.21	+0.00	14	11.8%	119
30	Blake Snell	-2	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
31	Trey Gibson	-2	6.20	5.05	+1.15	+0.00	8	18.6%	43
32	Griffin Canning	-1	5.11	4.00	+1.11	-0.03	9	10.6%	85
33	Garrett Crochet	EVEN	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
34	Eric Lauer	-2	6.49	5.45	+1.04	-0.04	15	14.4%	104
35	Tyler Holton	-1	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
36	Matt Waldron	-1	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
37	Cionel Pérez	+5	4.75	3.80	+0.96	+0.15	3	18.8%	16
38	Ryan Johnson	-1	5.95	5.00	+0.95	+0.06	7	14.3%	49
39	Jose Cabrera	+8	5.61	4.66	+0.94	+0.19	1	7.1%	14
40	Hurston Waldrep	NEW	5.48	4.55	+0.93	·	1	11.1%	9
41	Kyle Freeland	-5	5.20	4.31	+0.89	-0.03	14	9.7%	144
42	Ryan Weathers	-3	3.85	2.98	+0.87	+0.01	16	10.3%	155
43	Matthew Liberatore	-5	5.30	4.45	+0.85	-0.01	16	11.0%	145
44	Aaron Nola	-4	4.51	3.67	+0.84	+0.01	20	13.3%	150
45	Mike Burrows	-4	5.16	4.34	+0.82	+0.00	24	16.7%	144
46	Tatsuya Imai	-2	5.41	4.60	+0.82	+0.02	10	11.9%	84
47	Emmet Sheehan	-4	4.30	3.50	+0.80	+0.00	22	18.5%	119
48	Gavin Williams	-3	4.02	3.24	+0.78	+0.01	15	8.7%	172
49	Brandon Pfaadt	NEW	5.20	4.42	+0.78	·	3	7.3%	41
50	Michael Lorenzen	-4	5.07	4.32	+0.75	-0.02	14	8.8%	159

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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