FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-07-01T11:00:31-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-07-01

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	7.37	1.22	+6.15	+0.00	2	22.2%	9
2	Steven Cruz	NEW	6.76	3.66	+3.10	·	4	57.1%	7
3	Luis Gil	-1	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
4	Kyle Backhus	-1	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
5	Zack Littell	-1	7.55	5.36	+2.19	-0.09	20	16.7%	120
6	Taijuan Walker	-1	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
7	Max Scherzer	-1	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
8	Nick Lodolo	-1	7.12	5.19	+1.93	-0.15	7	10.9%	64
9	Brayan Bello	+1	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
10	Ryan Weiss	+1	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
11	Jared Jones	-3	5.46	3.74	+1.72	-0.16	7	17.1%	41
12	Germán Márquez	EVEN	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
13	Mitch Spence	EVEN	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
14	Miles Mikolas	-5	6.41	4.73	+1.68	-0.13	6	8.7%	69
15	Cole Ragans	-1	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
16	Jameson Taillon	-1	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
17	JR Ritchie	EVEN	5.86	4.40	+1.45	+0.00	8	16.3%	49
18	Tyler Mahle	-2	5.38	3.98	+1.40	-0.06	10	10.4%	96
19	Kodai Senga	-1	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.00	9	11.4%	79
20	Brady Singer	+2	5.74	4.41	+1.33	+0.02	24	19.0%	126
21	Griffin Jax	-2	5.56	4.23	+1.33	-0.03	10	10.2%	98
22	David Sandlin	+14	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.48	3	12.0%	25
23	Merrill Kelly	-3	6.83	5.52	+1.31	-0.02	13	12.9%	101
24	Brandon Sproat	-3	5.93	4.63	+1.30	-0.02	19	13.6%	140
25	Nathan Eovaldi	-2	4.76	3.49	+1.28	-0.02	14	10.1%	138
26	Roki Sasaki	-2	5.98	4.75	+1.23	-0.03	10	9.7%	103
27	Blake Snell	-1	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
28	Trey Gibson	-1	6.20	5.05	+1.15	+0.00	8	18.6%	43
29	Griffin Canning	-1	5.10	3.96	+1.14	+0.02	8	10.1%	79
30	Eric Lauer	-1	6.53	5.45	+1.08	-0.02	14	14.7%	95
31	Garrett Crochet	-1	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
32	Tyler Holton	-1	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
33	Matt Waldron	-1	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
34	Ryan Johnson	-9	6.30	5.32	+0.97	-0.26	4	11.8%	34
35	Kyle Freeland	-2	5.27	4.33	+0.93	+0.00	12	10.1%	119
36	Matthew Liberatore	-2	5.35	4.48	+0.86	+0.01	15	11.6%	129
37	Ryan Weathers	EVEN	3.80	2.95	+0.84	+0.01	14	10.1%	138
38	Tatsuya Imai	-3	5.64	4.81	+0.83	-0.01	6	9.0%	67
39	Mike Burrows	-1	5.15	4.33	+0.82	+0.01	21	15.4%	136
40	Cionel Pérez	NEW	4.67	3.86	+0.81	·	1	12.5%	8
41	Emmet Sheehan	-2	4.28	3.48	+0.80	+0.00	21	18.8%	112
42	Aaron Nola	-2	4.44	3.64	+0.80	+0.02	17	12.6%	135
43	Michael Lorenzen	-2	5.08	4.30	+0.78	+0.01	13	9.2%	142
44	Gavin Williams	-2	4.03	3.26	+0.77	+0.00	13	8.4%	155
45	Kyle Leahy	-2	5.09	4.40	+0.69	-0.04	16	11.0%	146
46	Ryan Feltner	-2	5.15	4.48	+0.67	-0.06	12	12.2%	98
47	Tomoyuki Sugano	-2	5.27	4.62	+0.65	-0.02	17	12.2%	139
48	Chris Paddack	EVEN	4.71	4.09	+0.62	+0.00	10	11.2%	89
49	Drew Rasmussen	-3	3.58	2.98	+0.61	-0.03	20	12.8%	156
50	Tanner Bibee	-1	4.67	4.06	+0.61	+0.00	20	12.7%	157

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

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