FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-06-27T11:00:21-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-06-27

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	7.37	1.22	+6.15	+0.00	2	22.2%	9
2	Steven Cruz	NEW	6.76	3.66	+3.10	·	4	57.1%	7
3	Luis Gil	-1	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
4	Kyle Backhus	-1	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
5	Zack Littell	-1	7.64	5.36	+2.28	+0.00	18	16.2%	111
6	Taijuan Walker	EVEN	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
7	Max Scherzer	EVEN	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
8	Nick Lodolo	-3	7.31	5.23	+2.08	-0.17	6	10.7%	56
9	Jared Jones	-1	5.61	3.73	+1.88	-0.18	5	15.2%	33
10	Miles Mikolas	EVEN	6.60	4.79	+1.81	+0.00	4	6.6%	61
11	Brayan Bello	EVEN	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
12	Ryan Weiss	EVEN	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
13	Germán Márquez	EVEN	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
14	Mitch Spence	EVEN	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
15	Cole Ragans	EVEN	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
16	Jameson Taillon	EVEN	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
17	Tyler Mahle	EVEN	5.44	3.98	+1.46	-0.07	8	9.0%	89
18	JR Ritchie	EVEN	5.86	4.40	+1.45	-0.04	8	16.3%	49
19	Kodai Senga	+10	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.33	9	11.4%	79
20	Griffin Jax	-1	5.64	4.28	+1.36	-0.02	9	9.9%	91
21	Merrill Kelly	EVEN	6.88	5.55	+1.33	-0.01	10	10.8%	93
22	Brandon Sproat	-2	5.99	4.67	+1.32	-0.02	18	13.6%	132
23	David Sandlin	+13	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.48	3	12.0%	25
24	Brady Singer	-1	5.73	4.42	+1.31	+0.04	21	17.9%	117
25	Nathan Eovaldi	-3	4.76	3.49	+1.28	-0.04	14	10.1%	138
26	Roki Sasaki	-2	5.98	4.75	+1.23	-0.03	10	9.7%	103
27	Ryan Johnson	NEW	7.08	5.85	+1.23	·	2	7.7%	26
28	Blake Snell	-2	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
29	Trey Gibson	-4	6.28	5.13	+1.15	-0.08	7	18.9%	37
30	Griffin Canning	-3	5.04	3.92	+1.12	+0.00	8	11.4%	70
31	Eric Lauer	-3	6.55	5.45	+1.10	+0.02	14	15.9%	88
32	Garrett Crochet	-2	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
33	Tyler Holton	-2	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
34	Matt Waldron	-2	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
35	Kyle Freeland	-2	5.27	4.33	+0.93	-0.02	12	10.1%	119
36	Matthew Liberatore	-2	5.36	4.51	+0.85	+0.00	15	12.4%	121
37	Ryan Weathers	+2	3.76	2.93	+0.83	+0.04	14	10.8%	130
38	Tatsuya Imai	-3	5.64	4.81	+0.83	-0.01	6	9.0%	67
39	Mike Burrows	-1	5.12	4.31	+0.81	+0.01	21	16.5%	127
40	Emmet Sheehan	-3	4.26	3.46	+0.80	-0.03	20	19.0%	105
41	Aaron Nola	EVEN	4.41	3.62	+0.78	+0.02	17	13.3%	128
42	Michael Lorenzen	EVEN	5.08	4.31	+0.77	+0.01	13	9.8%	133
43	Gavin Williams	+1	4.04	3.27	+0.77	+0.02	13	8.8%	147
44	Kyle Leahy	-1	5.14	4.42	+0.73	-0.02	16	11.6%	138
45	Ryan Feltner	-5	5.21	4.48	+0.73	-0.04	10	11.2%	89
46	Tomoyuki Sugano	-1	5.27	4.62	+0.65	-0.02	17	12.2%	139
47	Drew Rasmussen	-1	3.62	2.99	+0.64	-0.02	19	12.8%	148
48	Tanner Gordon	-1	4.32	3.69	+0.63	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
49	Chris Paddack	-1	4.71	4.09	+0.62	+0.00	10	11.2%	89
50	Tanner Bibee	-1	4.66	4.05	+0.61	+0.00	18	12.2%	148

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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