FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-06-25T11:00:43-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-06-25

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	7.37	1.22	+6.15	+0.00	2	22.2%	9
2	Luis Gil	EVEN	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
3	Kyle Backhus	EVEN	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
4	Zack Littell	EVEN	7.64	5.36	+2.28	+0.00	18	16.2%	111
5	Taijuan Walker	+1	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
6	Max Scherzer	+1	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
7	Nick Lodolo	-2	7.31	5.23	+2.08	-0.17	6	10.7%	56
8	Jared Jones	EVEN	5.61	3.73	+1.88	-0.18	5	15.2%	33
9	Miles Mikolas	+1	6.60	4.79	+1.81	+0.00	4	6.6%	61
10	Brayan Bello	+1	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
11	Ryan Weiss	+1	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
12	Germán Márquez	+1	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
13	Mitch Spence	+1	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
14	Cole Ragans	+1	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
15	Jameson Taillon	+1	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
16	Tyler Mahle	+1	5.44	3.98	+1.46	-0.07	8	9.0%	89
17	JR Ritchie	+1	5.86	4.40	+1.45	-0.04	8	16.3%	49
18	Kodai Senga	+11	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.33	9	11.4%	79
19	Griffin Jax	EVEN	5.64	4.28	+1.36	-0.08	9	9.9%	91
20	Merrill Kelly	+1	6.88	5.55	+1.33	-0.01	10	10.8%	93
21	Brandon Sproat	-1	5.99	4.67	+1.32	-0.02	18	13.6%	132
22	Brady Singer	+2	5.73	4.42	+1.31	+0.04	21	17.9%	117
23	Nathan Eovaldi	-1	4.79	3.49	+1.30	-0.02	13	10.0%	130
24	Roki Sasaki	-1	6.05	4.79	+1.26	-0.05	9	9.4%	96
25	Ryan Johnson	NEW	7.08	5.85	+1.23	·	2	7.7%	26
26	Blake Snell	EVEN	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
27	Trey Gibson	-2	6.28	5.13	+1.15	-0.07	7	18.9%	37
28	Griffin Canning	-1	5.04	3.92	+1.12	+0.00	8	11.4%	70
29	Eric Lauer	-1	6.55	5.45	+1.10	+0.02	14	15.9%	88
30	Garrett Crochet	EVEN	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
31	Tyler Holton	EVEN	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
32	Matt Waldron	EVEN	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
33	Kyle Freeland	EVEN	5.27	4.33	+0.93	-0.01	12	10.1%	119
34	Matthew Liberatore	+1	5.36	4.51	+0.85	+0.00	15	12.4%	121
35	Tatsuya Imai	-1	5.77	4.93	+0.84	-0.02	5	8.6%	58
36	David Sandlin	EVEN	7.52	6.68	+0.84	+0.00	3	16.7%	18
37	Ryan Weathers	+2	3.76	2.93	+0.83	+0.04	14	10.8%	130
38	Mike Burrows	EVEN	5.12	4.31	+0.81	+0.01	21	16.5%	127
39	Emmet Sheehan	-2	4.26	3.46	+0.80	-0.03	20	19.0%	105
40	Aaron Nola	+1	4.41	3.62	+0.78	+0.02	17	13.3%	128
41	Michael Lorenzen	+1	5.08	4.31	+0.77	+0.01	13	9.8%	133
42	Gavin Williams	+2	4.04	3.27	+0.77	+0.02	13	8.8%	147
43	Kyle Leahy	EVEN	5.14	4.42	+0.73	-0.02	16	11.6%	138
44	Ryan Feltner	-4	5.21	4.48	+0.73	-0.04	10	11.2%	89
45	Tomoyuki Sugano	EVEN	5.27	4.60	+0.67	-0.01	15	11.5%	130
46	Drew Rasmussen	EVEN	3.62	2.99	+0.64	-0.02	19	12.8%	148
47	Tanner Gordon	EVEN	4.32	3.69	+0.63	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
48	Chris Paddack	EVEN	4.71	4.09	+0.62	+0.00	10	11.2%	89
49	Tanner Bibee	+1	4.66	4.05	+0.61	+0.01	18	12.2%	148
50	Sammy Peralta	-1	4.78	4.17	+0.61	+0.00	1	11.1%	9

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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