FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_14 - 2026-06-19T14:00:28-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-06-19

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	7.37	1.22	+6.15	+0.00	2	22.2%	9
2	Luis Gil	+1	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
3	Kyle Backhus	+1	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
4	Zack Littell	+2	7.64	5.36	+2.28	-0.10	18	16.2%	111
5	Nick Lodolo	EVEN	7.49	5.24	+2.25	-0.14	6	12.5%	48
6	Taijuan Walker	+1	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
7	Max Scherzer	+1	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
8	Jared Jones	-6	5.76	3.69	+2.06	-0.94	4	16.0%	25
9	Kendry Rojas	EVEN	5.43	3.42	+2.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
10	Miles Mikolas	EVEN	6.60	4.79	+1.81	+0.00	4	6.6%	61
11	Brayan Bello	EVEN	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
12	Ryan Weiss	EVEN	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
13	Germán Márquez	EVEN	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
14	Mitch Spence	NEW	8.65	6.96	+1.69	·	1	12.5%	8
15	Cole Ragans	EVEN	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
16	Jameson Taillon	EVEN	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
17	Tyler Mahle	EVEN	5.50	3.98	+1.53	+0.00	8	9.9%	81
18	JR Ritchie	-4	5.83	4.33	+1.49	-0.20	8	18.6%	43
19	Griffin Jax	-1	5.82	4.38	+1.44	-0.03	8	10.4%	77
20	Brandon Sproat	EVEN	6.03	4.69	+1.34	-0.03	18	14.5%	124
21	Merrill Kelly	+1	6.92	5.58	+1.34	-0.02	10	11.8%	85
22	Nathan Eovaldi	-1	4.80	3.48	+1.32	-0.04	13	10.6%	123
23	Roki Sasaki	EVEN	6.17	4.85	+1.31	+0.00	7	8.0%	87
24	Brady Singer	EVEN	5.68	4.41	+1.27	+0.06	21	19.4%	108
25	Trey Gibson	-6	6.44	5.22	+1.22	-0.25	4	18.2%	22
26	Blake Snell	-1	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
27	Griffin Canning	-1	5.04	3.92	+1.12	+0.00	8	11.4%	70
28	Eric Lauer	-1	6.55	5.47	+1.08	+0.02	13	16.5%	79
29	Kodai Senga	+3	5.15	4.09	+1.06	+0.15	7	11.3%	62
30	Garrett Crochet	-2	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
31	Tyler Holton	-2	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
32	Matt Waldron	-2	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
33	Kyle Freeland	-2	5.27	4.33	+0.94	+0.03	10	9.5%	105
34	Tatsuya Imai	+2	5.85	4.98	+0.86	+0.00	4	8.0%	50
35	Matthew Liberatore	-2	5.39	4.55	+0.85	-0.04	14	12.3%	114
36	David Sandlin	+1	7.52	6.68	+0.84	+0.00	3	16.7%	18
37	Emmet Sheehan	-2	4.27	3.44	+0.83	-0.03	16	16.7%	96
38	Mike Burrows	EVEN	5.09	4.29	+0.80	+0.02	20	16.7%	120
39	Ryan Weathers	+2	3.71	2.91	+0.79	+0.03	14	11.5%	122
40	Ryan Feltner	-6	5.27	4.50	+0.77	-0.11	10	12.3%	81
41	Aaron Nola	-1	4.37	3.61	+0.76	+0.00	16	13.2%	121
42	Michael Lorenzen	+1	5.08	4.31	+0.76	+0.01	11	8.9%	124
43	Kyle Leahy	-4	5.19	4.44	+0.75	-0.02	16	12.2%	131
44	Gavin Williams	-2	4.04	3.28	+0.75	+0.00	13	9.3%	140
45	Tomoyuki Sugano	-1	5.26	4.58	+0.68	-0.01	14	11.4%	123
46	Drew Rasmussen	-1	3.66	3.01	+0.66	-0.02	19	13.6%	140
47	Tanner Gordon	EVEN	4.32	3.69	+0.63	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
48	Chris Paddack	EVEN	4.71	4.09	+0.62	+0.00	10	11.2%	89
49	Sammy Peralta	EVEN	4.78	4.17	+0.61	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
50	Tanner Bibee	EVEN	4.63	4.03	+0.60	+0.00	17	12.7%	134

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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