Today · 2026-07-21

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 3 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 James Wood vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.04 HR/FB 22.9% #2 Hunter Goodman vs Miles Mikolas FIP 5.5 HR/FB 28.6% #6 Cj Abrams vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.04 HR/FB 22.9%

📦 STACK Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.04 HR/FB 22.9% → #1 James Wood, #6 Cj Abrams, #9 Curtis Mead

📦 STACK Walker Buehler FIP 4.91 HR/FB 20.0% → #4 Matt Olson, #13 Drake Baldwin

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-20. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.9% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	James Wood (L) ⁴	80	-12.2	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%13.8% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffWill Warren Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle26.0° Distance434 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○○○○	2.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.44 FIP4.88 IP901.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+43 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.5°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+43 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph WNW (in) — modifier: -1
2	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁶	77	-18.3	●	Miles Mikolas (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	30	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffSam Moll Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance442 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○●○	0.3×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.42 FIP4.69 IP889.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+54 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.5°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+54 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph WNW (in) — modifier: -1
3	Kyle Schwarber (L)	74	-14.4	●	Justin Wrobleski (LHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	33	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffSean Manaea Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle41.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○●○○	0.7×	1	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.04 FIP3.75 IP856.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.4°F Wind5.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 33 HR Note73°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
4	Matt Olson (L) ⁵	73	-4.4	●	Walker Buehler (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffCal Quantrill Exit Velo110.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance420 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.19 FIP4.35 IP893.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+62 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.0°F Wind3.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+62 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0
5	Ben Rice (L) ⁴	73	-11.9	●	Bubba Chandler (RHP) PIT @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffCarson Palmquist Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle29.0° Distance387 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.08 FIP4.07 IP910.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+38 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp73.1°F Wind12.0 mph S Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+38 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note73°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4
6	Juan Soto (L) ⁵	67	-11.3	●	Brandon Sproat (RHP) NYM @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-09 OffBeck Way Exit Velo106.6 mph Angle29.0° Distance435 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○○○○	2.3×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.99 FIP3.60 IP894.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-7 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72.8°F Wind4 mph WSW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-7 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note73°F, wind 4 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +0
7	Curtis Mead (R) ⁴	67	-3.5	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV88.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo100.5 mph Angle33.0° Distance388 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○○○○	1.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.44 FIP4.88 IP901.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+55 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.5°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+55 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph WNW (in) — modifier: -1
8	Cj Abrams (L) ⁴	66	-9.7	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffAntonio Senzatela Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance420 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○●	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.44 FIP4.88 IP901.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+38 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.5°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+38 · Green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph WNW (in) — modifier: -1
9	Junior Caminero (R) ³	66	-12.4	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffEduardo Rivera Exit Velo111.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance423 ft StadiumFenway Park	●●○○○	1.5×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.15 FIP4.06 IP900.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
10	Ty France (R) ²	66	-0.1	●	Reynaldo López (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffBryce Elder Exit Velo100.3 mph Angle31.0° Distance397 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○●●	0.0×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.12 FIP4.11 IP882.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+65 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.0°F Wind3.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+65 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0
11	Shohei Ohtani (L) ²	66	-14.7	●	Zack Wheeler (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffMitch Bratt Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle33.0° Distance437 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○○○○	1.7×	1	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.25 FIP3.88 IP895.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+32 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.4°F Wind5.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+32 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note73°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
12	Drake Baldwin (L) ⁴	65	-3.7	●	Walker Buehler (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffBen Peoples Exit Velo107.9 mph Angle34.0° Distance392 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○●○	0.5×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.19 FIP4.35 IP893.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+68 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.0°F Wind3.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+68 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0
13	Byron Buxton (R) ⁴	64	-12.2	●	Parker Messick (LHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls3 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	29d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	4.5×	1	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.19 FIP4.01 IP911.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+56 Weather · Progressive Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.8°F Wind1.0 mph ENE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+56 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note73°F, wind 1 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
14	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁵	63	-15.1	●	Tyler Phillips (RHP) MIA @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffLake Bachar Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle23.0° Distance419 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.98 FIP3.96 IP923.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-19 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78.3°F Wind4 mph N Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph N (out) — modifier: +1
15	Jake Bauers (L)	63	-5.6	●	Zac Thornton (LHP) NYM @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle22.0° Distance375 ft StadiumPNC Park	○○○○○	1.2×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.13 FIP4.11 IP915.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72.8°F Wind4 mph WSW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note73°F, wind 4 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +0
16	Willson Contreras (R) ³	62	-4.6	●	Kyle Bradish (RHP) BAL @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle29.0° Distance414 ft StadiumFenway Park	○●○●○	0.2×	1	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.08 IP886.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+25 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.4°F Wind2.0 mph WSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note63°F, wind 2 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0
17	Dillon Dingler (R) ⁵	61	-1.6	●	David Peterson (LHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffTyler Ferguson Exit Velo97.4 mph Angle31.0° Distance382 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.8% HR/91.57 FIP4.79 IP877.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+29 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.8°F Wind3 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note76°F, wind 3 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0
18	Manny Machado (R) ²	60	-5.6	●	Reynaldo López (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffBryce Elder Exit Velo103.9 mph Angle29.0° Distance402 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.12 FIP4.11 IP882.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+68 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.0°F Wind3.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+68 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0
19	Joc Pederson (L) ⁵	60	·	●	Noah Schultz (LHP) CWS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffErick Fedde Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle36.0° Distance423 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	○○●○●	0.0×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.08 FIP4.28 IP878.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-10 Weather · Globe Life Field warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79.3°F Wind1.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note79°F, wind 1 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
20	Mike Trout (R) ³	59	-10.1	●	Matthew Liberatore (LHP) STL @ LAA · Angel Stadium	9:38p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%13.5% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffRobby Ahlstrom Exit Velo110.6 mph Angle23.0° Distance438 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	○○○○○	2.0×	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.03 FIP4.21 IP888.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-45 Weather · Angel Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.1°F Wind2.0 mph S Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-45 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note70°F, wind 2 mph S (in) — modifier: +0
21	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ³	58	-1.7	●	Framber Valdez (LHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffDean Kremer Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance419 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	2.7×	·	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.98 FIP3.81 IP907.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+77 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.8°F Wind3 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+77 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note76°F, wind 3 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0
22	Kody Clemens (L) ²	58	·	●	Parker Messick (LHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffCaleb Thielbar Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle37.0° Distance391 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○●○○	0.5×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.19 FIP4.01 IP911.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Progressive Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.8°F Wind1.0 mph ENE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note73°F, wind 1 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
23	Kyle Karros (R) ⁴	58	-4.8	●	Miles Mikolas (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%8.3% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffJT Brubaker Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle27.0° Distance435 ft StadiumOracle Park	●○○○○	1.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.42 FIP4.69 IP889.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+52 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.5°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph WNW (in) — modifier: -1
24	Spencer Torkelson (R) ³	58	-6.1	●	David Peterson (LHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffBrent Suter Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle28.0° Distance420 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○●○○	0.5×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.8% HR/91.57 FIP4.79 IP877.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+28 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.8°F Wind3 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note76°F, wind 3 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0
25	Max Muncy (L)	58	-9.0	●	Zack Wheeler (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffGerrit Cole Exit Velo107.9 mph Angle31.0° Distance416 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●○○○	1.0×	1	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.25 FIP3.88 IP895.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+29 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.4°F Wind5.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note73°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
26	Munetaka Murakami (L) ⁴	58	-11.4	●	Kumar Rocker (RHP) CWS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls12 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	55d Last HR · 2026-05-27 OffConnor Prielipp Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle24.0° Distance432 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○○○	3.0×	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.30 FIP4.21 IP884.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Globe Life Field warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79.3°F Wind1.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note79°F, wind 1 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
27	Bryce Harper (L) ³	58	-7.0	●	Justin Wrobleski (LHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffLandon Knack Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance407 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.04 FIP3.75 IP856.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+33 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.4°F Wind5.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note73°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
28	Shea Langeliers (R)	61	-10.5	●	AZ Bullpen Proxy ATH @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%15.1% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffJorbit Vivas Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance399 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	●●○○○	0.8×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.27 FIP4.52 IP886.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+9 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp84.3°F Wind3.2 mph ENE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note84°F, wind 3 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +1
29	Rafael Devers (L) ³	57	-6.4	●	Luinder Avila (RHP) SF @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffBryan Woo Exit Velo98.6 mph Angle44.0° Distance339 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	○○●○○	0.5×	·	KC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.39 FIP4.85 IP885.1 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-21 Weather · Kauffman Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp79.6°F Wind8.0 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-21 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +3
30	Bryce Eldridge (L) ⁴	57	-5.0	●	Luinder Avila (RHP) SF @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	10	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffLogan Gilbert Exit Velo107.0 mph Angle23.0° Distance407 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	○●○●○	0.2×	·	KC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.39 FIP4.85 IP885.1 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-15 Weather · Kauffman Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp79.6°F Wind8.0 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +3

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.3%

▼ -3.5 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 19.2% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-20

39 HRs

23%

9 caught / 39 HRs

in top 50

#3 Esmerlyn Valdez

42.2%

🟡

#6 Yordan Alvarez

28.2%

🟡

#11 Cj Abrams

25.0%

🔵

#15 Dillon Dingler

20.0%

🔵

#18 Ty France

36.5%

🔵

#20 Bryce Harper

22.8%

🔵

#27 Joc Pederson

24.5%

🟠

#31 Manny Machado

18.8%

🟠

#33 Riley Greene

14.5%

🟠

Missed

Brandon Marsh Willy Adames Ian Happ Ketel Marte Seiya Suzuki +25 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Esmerlyn Valdez ×4 Drake Baldwin ×2 James Wood ×2 Joc Pederson ×2 Junior Caminero ×2

❄️ Cold

Ben Rice 0 of 7d Kazuma Okamoto 0 of 6d Pete Crow-Armstrong 0 of 6d Munetaka Murakami 0 of 6d Juan Soto 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.6%

B 19.8%

C+ 16.8%

C 13.6%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-21

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.