TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TOR

Neutral air · 1.01×

TB @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 37 · vs Gausman ⟷ George Springer conv 24 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 95

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +245 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins +425 D ●●●○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 66

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 George Springer +525 D ●●●●○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C ●●●●○

3 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Gausman +245 0.264 · 93.2 · 10.7% 36.4% 38.6% F B O C+ 66

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Rasmussen +390 0.218 · 91.3 · 9.9% 22.2% 25.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Rasmussen +525 0.171 · 88.5 · 7.3% 28.6% 19.8% F B O D 46

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Gausman Edge +425 0.133 · 88.2 · 5.9% 25.0% 14.8% F B O D 42

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.177 · 88.3 · 7.5% 16.7% 23.0% F B O D 45

· TB Nick Fortes vs Gausman — 0.077 · 85.8 · 3.7% 14.3% 11.1% F B O D 31

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +750 0.109 · 86.6 · 2.7% 12.5% 9.1% F B O D 32

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Gausman Edge +475 0.173 · 91.1 · 9.4% 10.0% 11.2% F B O D 48

· TB Richie Palacios vs Gausman Edge +850 0.100 · 85.8 · 5.6% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 34

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Rasmussen +750 0.130 · 85.1 · 4.0% 11.1% 7.2% F B O D 34

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Gausman +500 0.157 · 91.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 40

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Rasmussen Edge +475 0.142 · 86.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· TB Ben Williamson vs Gausman — 0.091 · 87.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Rasmussen Edge +850 0.129 · 86.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson vs Gausman Edge — 0.071 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 20

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Gausman Edge +950 0.068 · 85.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.4% ← leak OFF 38.6% BRK 10.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.6% 7.0% 12.7% 13.9% C+ 66 +245

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.0% 6.0% 12.3% 10.3% D 48 +475

140

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.5% 9.4% 2.1% 4.0% D 42 +425

156

Yandy Diaz R

5.2% 5.0% 11.5% 7.3% D 40 +500

196

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.2% 4.0% 2.3% 4.2% D 34 +850

212

Nick Fortes R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 31 —

213

Ben Williamson R

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 31 —

223

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% D 29 +950

230

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.4% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 80.1% ← leak OFF 12.2% BRK 7.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.8% 16.7% 9.5% 14.2% C 56 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

106

George Springer R

9.2% 8.7% 5.8% 8.0% D 46 +525

112

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.9% 13.0% 20.0% 8.3% D 45 —

177

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.0% 6.7% 3.1% 7.0% D 38 +475

199

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.3% D 34 +750

207

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 1.1% D 32 +750

210

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.0% 6.1% 2.6% 3.3% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.1% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Mullins Okamoto Springer Valenzuela

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero +245 · 66

Kazuma Okamoto +390 · 56

George Springer +525 · 46

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof unknown

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.01× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +245 · 9 0.264 93.2 10.7% 41.5%vs RHP 408 28.1% 36.4% 38.6% 31

2 Jonathan Aranda 48 D +475 WARM 95 0.173 91.1 9.4% 19.7%vs RHP 387 12.9% 10.0% 11.2% 32

3 Cedric Mullins 42 D +425 WARM 140 0.133 88.2 5.9% 21.1%vs RHP 391 14.3% 25.0% 14.8% 20

4 Yandy Diaz 40 D +500 · 156 0.157 91.1 7.6% 23.1%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 42

5 Richie Palacios 34 D +850 WARM 196 0.100 85.8 5.6% 10.0%vs RHP 396 4.0% 12.5% 8.3% 18

6 Nick Fortes 31 D — WARM 212 0.077 85.8 3.7% 10.5%vs RHP 400 3.8% 14.3% 11.1% 16

7 Ben Williamson 31 D — WARM 213 0.091 87.2 3.9% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.0% 0.0% 8.7% 20

8 Taylor Walls 29 D +950 COOL 223 0.068 85.1 5.0% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 22

9 Chandler Simpson 20 D — · 230 0.071 84.0 — 3.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 36

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +390 COOL 34 0.218 91.3 9.9% 30.9%vs RHP 396 20.0% 22.2% 25.0% 26

2 George Springer 46 D +525 WARM 106 0.171 88.5 7.3% 23.7%vs RHP 391 11.0% 28.6% 19.8% 20

3 Brandon Valenzuela 45 D — COOL 112 0.177 88.3 7.5% 24.0%vs RHP 394 11.8% 16.7% 23.0% 10

4 Daulton Varsho 38 D +475 WARM 177 0.142 86.3 6.9% 11.5%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 9.3% 30

5 Ernie Clement 34 D +750 COOL 199 0.130 85.1 4.0% 7.7%vs RHP 375 8.6% 11.1% 7.2% 36

6 Nathan Lukes 32 D +750 COOL 207 0.109 86.6 2.7% 15.2%vs RHP 378 6.4% 12.5% 9.1% 24

7 Andres Gimenez 31 D +850 WARM 210 0.129 86.1 4.7% 11.9%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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