TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.12×

MIA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 4 mph out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

-3 ↑

9:10p

-4 ↑

10:10p

-5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +0

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 14 · vs Imai ⟷ Yordan Alvarez conv 15 · vs Phillips → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Tatsuya Imai RHP · HOU

leak 96

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.99 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +290 C ●●○○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +390 C ●●○○○

3 Liam Hicks +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 83

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yordan Alvarez +225 C+ ●●○○○

2 Yainer Diaz +700 D ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 30.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Phillips Edge +225 0.310 · 94.5 · 12.0% 0.0% 30.9% F B O C+ 63

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Imai Edge +290 0.210 · 91.4 · 10.7% 11.1% 17.4% F B O C 55

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Imai +390 0.229 · 92.3 · 10.8% 0.0% 27.9% F B O C 53

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Phillips +370 0.229 · 89.5 · 8.8% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Phillips +700 0.158 · 87.9 · 6.5% 16.7% 10.2% F B O D 43

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Phillips +525 0.135 · 87.5 · 5.7% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 40

· MIA Liam Hicks vs Imai Edge +625 0.157 · 85.2 · 5.9% 11.1% 12.5% F B O D 45

· HOU Cam Smith vs Phillips +525 0.151 · 89.4 · 9.6% 14.3% 9.2% F B O D 47

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Phillips +575 0.171 · 85.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 18.3% F B O D 41

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Phillips — 0.117 · 85.9 · 3.3% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 33

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Imai +700 0.167 · 89.5 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 46

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Phillips +400 0.155 · 86.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Imai Edge +750 0.093 · 86.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Imai Edge +850 0.119 · 87.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 38

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Imai +850 0.127 · 87.2 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.3% BRK 44.8% OFF 4.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Stowers L Edge

12.7% 15.6% 3.0% 11.7% C 55 +290

Heriberto Hernández R

12.8% 11.8% 8.3% 12.1% C 53 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

109

Otto Lopez R

10.4% 4.1% 2.1% 7.0% D 46 +700

117

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.6% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% D 45 +625

179

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.2% 2.9% 3.3% 4.4% D 38 +850

191

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 8.3% 3.2% D 36 +750

192

Javier Sanoja R

0.8% 2.8% 0.0% 1.4% D 36 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Imai's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 41.5% FB 34.3% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

23.2% 18.7% 10.7% 18.4% C+ 63 +225

Christian Walker R

11.4% 8.9% 14.3% 10.3% C 54 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

104

Cam Smith R

16.1% 9.4% 20.0% 12.0% D 47 +525

134

Yainer Diaz R

2.0% 9.6% 4.2% 6.1% D 43 +700

143

Isaac Paredes R

4.1% 7.1% 2.5% 5.7% D 42 +400

147

Jose Altuve R

6.2% 6.9% 0.0% 6.1% D 41 +575

164

Jeremy Peña R

3.9% 3.0% 14.3% 4.2% D 40 +525

201

Christian Vazquez R

0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 2.0% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Alvarez Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Imai fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 4 mph out 78°F retractable

↑

7 mph · cross

96°F

7:10p · peak

-3

↑

7 mph · in

93°F

8:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

91°F

9:10p

-4

↑

7 mph · in

88°F

10:10p

-5

↑

7 mph · in

86°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 78°F, wind 4 mph N (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tatsuya Imai · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.99 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 55 C +290 · 40 0.210 91.4 10.7% 24.4%vs RHP 396 11.3% 11.1% 17.4% 20

2 Heriberto Hernández 53 C +390 WARM 54 0.229 92.3 10.8% 18.8%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 27.9% 23

3 Otto Lopez 46 D +700 COOL 109 0.167 89.5 8.3% 12.7%vs RHP 402 8.3% 0.0% 11.1% 25

4 Liam Hicks 45 D +625 · 117 0.157 85.2 5.9% 21.8%vs RHP 376 15.9% 11.1% 12.5% 32

5 Xavier Edwards 38 D +850 COOL 179 0.119 87.1 6.6% 3.5%vs RHP 396 5.2% 0.0% 8.0% 31

6 Jakob Marsee 36 D +750 COOL 191 0.093 86.7 5.6% 7.8%vs RHP 379 6.3% 0.0% 8.6% 24

7 Javier Sanoja 36 D +850 COOL 192 0.127 87.2 3.7% 3.9%vs RHP 385 4.8% 0.0% 7.5% 33

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 63 C+ +225 · 14 0.310 94.5 12.0% 26.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 30.9% 28

2 Christian Walker 54 C +370 COOL 51 0.229 89.5 8.8% 27.9%vs RHP 388 18.9% 0.0% 15.2% 15

3 Cam Smith 47 D +525 · 104 0.151 89.4 9.6% 19.6%vs RHP 414 12.1% 14.3% 9.2% 22

4 Yainer Diaz 43 D +700 · 134 0.158 87.9 6.5% 25.0%vs RHP 391 9.5% 16.7% 10.2% 21

5 Isaac Paredes 42 D +400 COOL 143 0.155 86.7 6.9% 17.6%vs RHP 373 10.4% 0.0% 9.2% 30

6 Jose Altuve 41 D +575 COOL 147 0.171 85.7 6.9% 23.1%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 28

7 Jeremy Peña 40 D +525 WARM 164 0.135 87.5 5.7% 15.2%vs RHP 388 9.3% 16.7% 7.8% 20

8 Christian Vazquez 33 D — COOL 201 0.117 85.9 3.3% 14.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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