TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.29×

SF @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -2

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 26 · vs Mahle ⟷ Willy Adames conv 33 · vs Avila → edge: Willy Adames

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 70

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas +575 C ●●●●○

2 Jac Caglianone +320 C ●●●○○

3 Isaac Collins +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Luinder Avila RHP · KC

leak 23

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willy Adames +500 C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +425 C ●●●●○

3 Rafael Devers +390 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willy Adames: Match 25.4% · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Willy Adames ✶ COOL vs Avila +500 0.203 · 88.2 · 8.1% 40.0% 25.4% F B O C 55

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Mahle +575 0.173 · 89.6 · 7.2% 30.0% 22.6% F B O C 50

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Avila Edge +425 0.215 · 92.5 · 9.6% 30.0% 22.4% F B O C 57

· SF Rafael Devers COOL vs Avila Edge +390 0.228 · 92.1 · 9.0% 20.0% 24.9% F B O C 57

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Avila +400 0.208 · 89.7 · 9.2% 20.0% 17.4% F B O C 54

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Mahle Edge +320 0.205 · 93.0 · 10.7% 20.0% 17.2% F B O C 55

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Avila +475 0.182 · 92.4 · 10.3% 10.0% 12.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Mahle Edge +750 0.119 · 88.4 · 6.6% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

· KC Salvador Perez vs Mahle +425 0.155 · 89.0 · 8.4% 0.0% 16.7% F B O D 42

· KC Carter Jensen vs Mahle Edge +475 0.186 · 90.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 47

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Mahle Edge +750 0.157 · 90.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Mahle Edge +575 0.116 · 88.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Avila Edge +950 0.127 · 85.8 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Avila Edge +950 0.129 · 87.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 34

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Avila Edge — 0.127 · 87.0 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.7% BRK 37.1% OFF 10.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.5% 8.5% 9.8% 12.0% C 57 +390

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.6% 6.7% 20.0% 12.7% C 57 +425

Willy Adames R

8.1% 10.4% 13.6% 9.2% C 55 +500

Casey Schmitt R

8.8% 18.4% 17.4% 12.3% C 54 +400

Heliot Ramos R

14.3% 15.5% 17.4% 15.1% C 50 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

198

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.0% 2.4% 0.0% 1.8% D 34 +950

200

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 34 +950

219

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Avila's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.4% ← leak OFF 25.2% BRK 10.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.2% 12.8% 16.2% 15.0% C 55 +320

Lane Thomas R

9.2% 5.3% 2.8% 7.6% C 50 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

101

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.7% 8.3% 8.2% 8.9% D 47 +475

138

Salvador Perez R

14.0% 10.8% 6.1% 10.4% D 42 +425

155

Michael Massey L Edge

8.5% 2.7% 4.5% 6.6% D 41 +750

168

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

8.5% 11.1% 3.4% 7.5% D 39 +575

181

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.5% 0.0% 7.4% 5.7% D 38 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.4% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Schmitt Caglianone Thomas

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Willy Adames +500 · 55

Lane Thomas +575 · 50

Bryce Eldridge +425 · 57

Rafael Devers +390 · 57

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph out 80°F open

-2

↑

9 mph · cross

88°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

86°F

7:40p

-4

↑

7 mph · in

83°F

8:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

80°F

9:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

78°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 80°F, wind 8 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Luinder Avila · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 57 C +390 COOL 29 0.228 92.1 9.0% 27.0%vs RHP 401 17.4% 20.0% 24.9% 24

2 Bryce Eldridge 57 C +425 WARM 30 0.215 92.5 9.6% 22.6%vs RHP 399 23.5% 30.0% 22.4% 23

3 Willy Adames ✶ 55 C +500 COOL 38 0.203 88.2 8.1% 22.2%vs RHP 388 16.7% 40.0% 25.4% 27

4 Casey Schmitt 54 C +400 · 49 0.208 89.7 9.2% 20.3%vs RHP 396 16.8% 20.0% 17.4% 35

5 Heliot Ramos 50 C +475 · 80 0.182 92.4 10.3% 18.2%vs RHP 404 12.7% 10.0% 12.9% 27

6 Drew Gilbert 34 D +950 COOL 198 0.127 85.8 3.5% 15.4%vs RHP 398 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% 26

7 Jung Hoo Lee 34 D +950 COOL 200 0.129 87.1 4.0% 8.5%vs RHP 378 4.4% 0.0% 6.7% 30

8 Luis Arraez 29 D — COOL 219 0.127 87.0 1.9% 3.5%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 37

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 55 C +320 COOL 42 0.205 93.0 10.7% 27.0%vs RHP 416 13.5% 20.0% 17.2% 34

2 Lane Thomas 50 C +575 HOT 73 0.173 89.6 7.2% 23.1%vs RHP 416 16.1% 30.0% 22.6% 29

3 Carter Jensen 47 D +475 · 101 0.186 90.7 8.2% 17.5%vs RHP 393 14.5% 0.0% 11.7% 23

4 Salvador Perez 42 D +425 · 138 0.155 89.0 8.4% 17.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 27

5 Michael Massey 41 D +750 COOL 155 0.157 90.4 6.9% 9.7%vs RHP 398 6.3% 0.0% 8.9% 27

6 Vinnie Pasquantino 39 D +575 · 168 0.116 88.5 7.3% 12.2%vs RHP 395 8.6% 0.0% 7.7% 14

7 Isaac Collins 38 D +750 COOL 181 0.119 88.4 6.6% 7.7%vs RHP 395 6.0% 10.0% 7.2% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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