TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.54×

PIT @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 12 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:05p

+2 ↑

8:05p

+4 ↑

9:05p

+6 ↑

10:05p

+6 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 10:05p window peaks +6

Best of game Ryan O'Hearn conv 16 · vs Warren ⟷ Ben Rice conv 32 · vs Chandler → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 86

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ryan O'Hearn +400 C ●●●○○

2 Marcell Ozuna — D ●●○○○

3 Nick Gonzales +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 84

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +225 B ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +290 C ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells +400 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Chandler Edge +225 0.316 · 92.3 · 10.2% 27.3% 36.6% F B O B 73

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Chandler Edge +290 0.185 · 91.2 · 8.7% 30.0% 17.3% F B O C 55

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Chandler +400 0.226 · 86.4 · 8.8% 14.3% 19.7% F B O C 57

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Warren Edge +400 0.187 · 89.8 · 7.5% 8.3% 24.6% F B O C 52

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Warren Edge +400 0.193 · 90.9 · 8.8% 8.3% 15.4% F B O C 53

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Warren Edge +290 0.233 · 91.0 · 9.4% 0.0% 18.6% F B O C 57

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Chandler Edge +400 0.167 · 90.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Chandler Edge +400 0.103 · 89.1 · 6.6% 25.0% 15.2% F B O D 45

· PIT Marcell Ozuna vs Warren — 0.122 · 89.4 · 7.9% 16.7% 14.2% F B O D 45

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Warren +700 0.097 · 85.8 · 4.5% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 37

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Warren Edge +950 0.072 · 84.6 · 3.3% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 33

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Chandler Edge +400 0.158 · 89.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 46

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Chandler +750 0.139 · 83.7 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.4% ← leak BRK 23.6% OFF 10.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.5% 6.9% 12.0% 12.5% C 57 +290

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.8% 14.5% 5.3% 10.6% C 53 +400

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.6% 7.4% 4.5% 8.5% C 52 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

114

Marcell Ozuna R

8.5% 11.5% 0.0% 8.4% D 45 —

186

Nick Gonzales R

1.7% 5.8% 0.0% 2.8% D 37 +700

204

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.4% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.9% ← leak BRK 28.3% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.7% 11.5% 12.2% 15.5% B 73 +225

Neutral · 3

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.2% 5.5% 10.7% 11.7% C 57 +400

Trent Grisham L Edge

12.7% 10.5% 5.7% 11.2% C 55 +290

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

14.0% 5.3% 18.2% 12.3% C 51 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

110

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 12.1% 8.9% 6.2% D 46 +400

113

Austin Wells L Edge

9.1% 6.9% 0.0% 7.1% D 45 +400

172

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 38 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.9% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → O'Hearn Ozuna Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice +225 · 73

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 12 mph out 73°F open

↑

12 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:05p

↑

13 mph · cross

73°F

8:05p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:05p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:05p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

70°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.54× 73°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 57 C +290 COOL 33 0.233 91.0 9.4% 24.3%vs RHP 392 15.9% 0.0% 18.6% 23

2 Bryan Reynolds 53 C +400 WARM 59 0.193 90.9 8.8% 18.6%vs RHP 409 13.5% 8.3% 15.4% 19

3 Ryan O'Hearn 52 C +400 WARM 61 0.187 89.8 7.5% 21.8%vs RHP 384 14.1% 8.3% 24.6% 27

4 Marcell Ozuna 45 D — · 114 0.122 89.4 7.9% 14.3%vs RHP 404 9.5% 16.7% 14.2% 13

5 Nick Gonzales 37 D +700 COOL 186 0.097 85.8 4.5% 11.1%vs RHP 396 6.5% 16.7% 8.7% 30

6 Jake Mangum 33 D +950 HOT 204 0.072 84.6 3.3% 10.5%vs RHP 408 3.6% 10.0% 8.8% 32

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 73 B +225 WARM 5 0.316 92.3 10.2% 36.1%vs RHP 389 26.1% 27.3% 36.6% 29

2 Paul Goldschmidt 57 C +400 COOL 32 0.226 86.4 8.8% 24.1%vs RHP 391 17.5% 14.3% 19.7% 15

3 Trent Grisham 55 C +290 WARM 41 0.185 91.2 8.7% 16.0%vs RHP 390 12.2% 30.0% 17.3% 31

4 Ryan Mcmahon 51 C +400 WARM 69 0.167 90.8 8.7% 25.0%vs RHP 384 33.3% 0.0% 15.8% 17

5 Cody Bellinger 46 D +400 COOL 110 0.158 89.0 6.6% 10.6%vs RHP 379 9.7% 0.0% 10.5% 28

6 Austin Wells 45 D +400 WARM 113 0.103 89.1 6.6% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.1% 25.0% 15.2% 18

7 Jose Caballero 38 D +750 COOL 172 0.139 83.7 5.0% 18.8%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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