TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ MIL

Playable air · 1.06×

NYM @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph in 73°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:40p

+5 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +5

Best of game Juan Soto conv 26 · vs Sproat ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs Thornton → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Brandon Sproat RHP · MIL

leak 75

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Francisco Lindor +350 C ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP

leak 5

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +370 C+ ●●●●○

2 Joey Ortiz +750 D ●●●○○

3 Brice Turang +575 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Sproat Edge +255 0.257 · 92.5 · 11.2% 20.0% 31.7% F B O C+ 67

· — Jake Bauers vs Thornton +370 0.260 · 92.5 · 10.6% 25.0% 23.3% F B O C+ 63

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Sproat Edge +350 0.163 · 92.1 · 9.2% 22.2% 15.2% F B O C 52

· — Brice Turang vs Thornton +575 0.196 · 90.9 · 8.3% 20.0% 14.6% F B O C 50

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Sproat +425 0.183 · 90.2 · 11.8% 0.0% 29.0% F B O C 53

· — Jackson Chourio COOL vs Thornton Edge +390 0.210 · 92.3 · 10.4% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Joey Ortiz vs Thornton Edge +750 0.088 · 87.8 · 5.6% 33.3% 10.9% F B O D 38

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Sproat Edge +525 0.098 · 89.4 · 8.5% 22.2% 11.3% F B O D 44

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Sproat Edge +525 0.157 · — · 7.9% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 43

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Sproat — 0.124 · 86.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 45

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Thornton +500 0.179 · 92.7 · 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 49

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Sproat +575 0.117 · 90.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Sproat Edge +525 0.131 · 89.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 45

· — Christian Yelich COOL vs Thornton +575 0.133 · 89.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· — William Contreras vs Thornton Edge +430 0.145 · 90.2 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.8% ← leak BRK 21.1% OFF 8.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Juan Soto L Edge

18.5% 11.9% 5.0% 14.5% C+ 67 +255

Francisco Alvarez R

16.0% 15.3% 17.6% 15.9% C 53 +425

Francisco Lindor S Edge

10.3% 4.8% 9.1% 9.2% C 52 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

116

Marcus Semien R

11.2% 2.5% 9.5% 8.1% D 45 —

120

Carson Benge L Edge

7.2% 8.5% 6.5% 7.4% D 45 +525

124

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 13.6% 2.4% 8.3% D 44 +525

127

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 12.1% 0.0% 6.7% D 44 +575

129

A.J. Ewing L Edge

9.5% 7.7% 0.0% 7.3% D 43 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.8% usage) carries Sproat's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 82.6% ← leak BRK 14.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jake Bauers L

14.4% 14.0% 14.6% C+ 63 +370

Jackson Chourio S Edge

13.5% 14.9% 12.7% C 53 +390

Brice Turang L

9.8% 10.1% 8.6% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L

16.5% 12.3% 13.9% D 49 +500

144

William Contreras R Edge

9.6% 7.8% 8.3% D 42 +430

163

Christian Yelich L

4.4% 10.4% 6.8% D 40 +575

174

Joey Ortiz R Edge

3.5% 5.0% 3.7% D 38 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (82.6% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Alvarez Lindor Baty Bauers Turang Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Sproat fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Juan Soto +255 · 67

Jake Bauers +370 · 63

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph in 73°F retractable

↑

15 mph · slight_out

71°F

6:40p · peak

↑

15 mph · slight_out

68°F

7:40p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

65°F

8:40p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

62°F

9:40p

↑

14 mph · cross

60°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 73°F, wind 4 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Sproat · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 67 C+ +255 COOL 6 0.257 92.5 11.2% 32.7%vs RHP 401 20.0% 20.0% 31.7% 25

2 Francisco Alvarez 53 C +425 COOL 53 0.183 90.2 11.8% 27.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 29.0% 16

3 Francisco Lindor 52 C +350 WARM 63 0.163 92.1 9.2% 13.8%vs RHP 399 10.3% 22.2% 15.2% 28

4 Marcus Semien 45 D — COOL 116 0.124 86.1 8.2% 16.7%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 13.6% 4

5 Carson Benge 45 D +525 COOL 120 0.131 89.2 8.1% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.4% 0.0% 8.5% 23

6 Brett Baty 44 D +525 HOT 124 0.098 89.4 8.5% 10.6%vs RHP 401 5.4% 22.2% 11.3% 29

7 Bo Bichette 44 D +575 COOL 127 0.117 90.0 7.7% 10.0%vs RHP 385 9.4% 0.0% 9.9% 26

8 A.J. Ewing 43 D +525 · 129 0.157 — 7.9% 17.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 29

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 63 C+ +370 WARM 15 0.260 92.5 10.6% 15.8%vs LHP 401 20.8% 25.0% 23.3% 17

2 Jackson Chourio 53 C +390 COOL 56 0.210 92.3 10.4% 50.0%vs LHP 402 16.7% 0.0% 16.4% 28

3 Brice Turang 50 C +575 WARM 78 0.196 90.9 8.3% 7.7%vs LHP 406 11.5% 20.0% 14.6% 27

4 Garrett Mitchell 49 D +500 COOL 91 0.179 92.7 10.8% 21.6% 415 8.9% 0.0% 10.8% 29

5 William Contreras 42 D +430 WARM 144 0.145 90.2 7.8% 9.5%vs LHP 419 10.0% 0.0% 7.4% 26

6 Christian Yelich 40 D +575 COOL 163 0.133 89.0 7.6% 22.2%vs LHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 8.1% 28

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D +750 WARM 174 0.088 87.8 5.6% 7.1%vs LHP 400 6.2% 33.3% 10.9% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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