0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
5.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.03
FIP
3.91
xFIP
#30
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
5
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 5th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 82.6%
BRK 14.6%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 3
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (82.6% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
43.8%
83.0
3.1°
1
-0.6
Fastball Hard
29.6%
84.5
31.8°
0
-2.3
Sweeper Breaking
14.6%
82.2
20.5°
0
-1.9
Sinker Hard
9.2%
82.9
34.2°
0
-2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB5.6% 5
HR/9—
FIP3.03 16
xFIP3.91
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-21
Cutter
Hard · 43.8% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle3.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches105
Fastball
Hard · 29.6% usage
-2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle31.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches71
Sweeper
Breaking · 14.6% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle20.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches35
Sinker
Hard · 9.2% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle34.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches22
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Zac Thornton.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — American Family Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.061
Wind
4 mph from WSW
Temp
73°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
7:40p
4
73°
-1
8:40p
4
73°
-1
9:40p
4
73°
-1
10:40p
4
73°
-1
11:40p
4
73°
-1
-1
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 4 mph from WSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.