TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TEX

Neutral air · 1.02×

CWS @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 1 mph out 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:05p

-2 ↑

8:05p

-2 ↑

9:05p

-2 ↑

10:05p

-2 ↑

11:05p

the 8:05p window peaks -2

Best of game Sam Antonacci conv 17 · vs Rocker ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 28 · vs Schultz → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 93

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sam Antonacci +625 D ●●●○○

2 Colson Montgomery +305 C ●●○○○

3 Tristan Peters +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Schultz LHP · CWS

leak 3

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Wyatt Langford +390 C ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +390 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 19.5% · 14D pace 37.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Schultz — 0.239 · 91.9 · 10.9% 37.5% 19.5% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Schultz Edge +390 0.216 · 89.0 · 9.3% 25.0% 25.8% F B O C 54

· TEX Jake Burger vs Schultz Edge +390 0.181 · 89.9 · 10.4% 20.0% 21.8% F B O C 53

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Rocker Edge +305 0.246 · 89.2 · 10.3% 10.0% 17.9% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Rocker +390 0.237 · 90.5 · 10.8% 10.0% 13.3% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Rocker Edge +290 0.287 · 93.9 · 12.2% 0.0% 20.2% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Schultz — 0.041 · 87.0 · 2.7% 33.3% 7.9% F B O D 29

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Schultz Edge +700 0.163 · 88.4 · 8.3% 20.0% 18.8% F B O D 47

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Rocker Edge +625 0.136 · 87.5 · 7.1% 22.2% 12.2% F B O D 40

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Rocker Edge +700 0.172 · 87.2 · 6.0% 14.3% 10.5% F B O D 40

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Schultz — 0.147 · 87.8 · 8.3% 12.5% 6.4% F B O D 42

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Schultz +425 0.164 · 92.5 · 11.6% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Rocker Edge +500 0.181 · 89.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 44

· TEX Josh Jung HOT vs Schultz Edge +575 0.146 · 90.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 42

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Rocker — 0.113 · 87.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Rocker — 0.038 · 89.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.8% ← leak BRK 37.6% OFF 5.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.7% 14.0% 22.2% 19.0% C 58 +290

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.5% 13.0% 14.7% 13.5% C 56 +305

Miguel Vargas R

16.8% 11.7% 12.9% 14.7% C 55 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

123

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.1% 5.9% 6.2% 9.7% D 44 +500

160

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.1% 6.7% 0.0% 6.5% D 40 +625

161

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.5% 4.1% 0.0% 5.0% D 40 +700

209

Chase Meidroth R

4.4% 5.8% 2.3% 4.4% D 32 —

225

Luisangel Acuna R

5.4% 5.6% 0.0% 4.7% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.8% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 68.1% BRK 21.8% OFF 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L

16.5% 9.4% 4.4% 11.8% C+ 60 —

Wyatt Langford R Edge

6.6% 11.1% 7.7% 8.1% C 54 +390

Jake Burger R Edge

9.6% 12.1% 10.7% 10.6% C 53 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brandon Nimmo L

10.2% 18.7% 15.0% 13.2% D 48 +425

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

9.1% 6.2% 0.0% 6.9% D 47 +700

142

Josh Jung R Edge

8.7% 3.2% 3.6% 6.3% D 42 +575

146

Evan Carter L

8.7% 5.3% 0.0% 6.4% D 42 —

220

Alejandro Osuna L

0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.7% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Schultz's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Montgomery Antonacci Pederson Langford Burger Duran Osuna

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Joc Pederson — · 60

Wyatt Langford +390 · 54

Jake Burger +390 · 53

Ezequiel Duran +700 · 47

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 1 mph out 79°F retractable

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

102°F

7:05p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

99°F

8:05p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

97°F

9:05p

-2

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6 mph · cross

94°F

10:05p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

93°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 79°F, wind 1 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 58 C +290 COOL 26 0.287 93.9 12.2% 38.1%vs RHP 409 15.6% 0.0% 20.2% 12

2 Colson Montgomery 56 C +305 COOL 36 0.246 89.2 10.3% 25.4%vs RHP 398 25.6% 10.0% 17.9% 22

3 Miguel Vargas 55 C +390 · 44 0.237 90.5 10.8% 15.8%vs RHP 389 20.7% 10.0% 13.3% 34

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D +500 COOL 123 0.181 89.1 8.5% 17.2%vs RHP 389 14.1% 0.0% 12.0% 20

5 Sam Antonacci 40 D +625 COOL 160 0.136 87.5 7.1% 15.2%vs RHP 397 10.9% 22.2% 12.2% 29

6 Tristan Peters 40 D +700 HOT 161 0.172 87.2 6.0% 11.1%vs RHP 377 8.6% 14.3% 10.5% 24

7 Chase Meidroth 32 D — COOL 209 0.113 87.8 5.7% 13.9%vs RHP 376 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% 23

8 Luisangel Acuna 27 D — COOL 225 0.038 89.8 5.6% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 8

vs Noah Schultz · LHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 60 C+ — WARM 19 0.239 91.9 10.9% 24.3% 394 21.7% 37.5% 19.5% 18

2 Wyatt Langford 54 C +390 · 46 0.216 89.0 9.3% 25.0%vs LHP 403 16.7% 25.0% 25.8% 25

3 Jake Burger 53 C +390 WARM 55 0.181 89.9 10.4% 29.4%vs LHP 400 15.6% 20.0% 21.8% 26

4 Brandon Nimmo 48 D +425 · 96 0.164 92.5 11.6% 11.8%vs LHP 409 9.0% 10.0% 6.8% 24

5 Ezequiel Duran 47 D +700 WARM 98 0.163 88.4 8.3% 18.2%vs LHP 385 12.3% 20.0% 18.8% 21

6 Josh Jung 42 D +575 HOT 142 0.146 90.5 8.2% 13.3%vs LHP 386 10.1% 0.0% 9.3% 23

7 Evan Carter 42 D — COOL 146 0.147 87.8 8.3% 11.0% 374 10.3% 12.5% 6.4% 19

8 Alejandro Osuna 29 D — WARM 220 0.041 87.0 2.7% 3.2% 364 2.9% 33.3% 7.9% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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