TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.97×

BAL @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 2 mph out 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

+0 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+6 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +6

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 34 · vs Bradish ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 29 · vs Suarez → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 91

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Masataka Yoshida +850 D ●●●●●

3 Wilyer Abreu +390 C ●●●●○

FADE Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 13

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo +400 D ●●●●○

2 Samuel Basallo — C ●●●●○

3 Pete Alonso +350 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: Match 34.2% · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Bradish +400 0.258 · 90.6 · 10.9% 33.3% 34.2% F B O C+ 62

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Bradish Edge +390 0.194 · 90.2 · 10.3% 36.4% 19.5% F B O C 54

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Suarez — 0.207 · 91.3 · 8.5% 22.2% 26.1% F B O C 50

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Suarez Edge +350 0.215 · 93.7 · 8.4% 20.0% 19.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Bradish Edge +850 0.142 · 88.6 · 4.9% 50.0% 13.6% F B O D 41

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Suarez Edge +400 0.202 · 92.3 · 8.0% 33.3% 24.3% F B O D 49

· BOS Andruw Monasterio HOT vs Bradish — 0.183 · 89.0 · 8.8% 33.3% 16.8% F B O D 49

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Suarez Edge +525 0.108 · 89.3 · 5.7% 20.0% 12.4% F B O D 33

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Suarez Edge +850 0.131 · 87.2 · 5.1% 20.0% 10.0% F B O D 33

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Bradish +850 0.151 · 84.9 · 4.7% 18.2% 11.2% F B O D 38

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Suarez +525 0.179 · 89.5 · 6.4% 10.0% 15.2% F B O D 42

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Bradish +750 0.162 · 86.1 · 6.3% 9.1% 10.2% F B O D 40

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Bradish +625 0.089 · 91.4 · 7.7% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 35

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Bradish Edge +525 0.144 · 89.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 43

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Suarez — 0.139 · 86.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.2% ← leak BRK 19.0% OFF 14.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.6% 7.4% 15.6% 13.2% C 51 +350

Samuel Basallo L

15.0% 11.5% 11.1% 13.1% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Coby Mayo R Edge

10.5% 11.3% 10.5% 10.8% D 49 +400

139

Gunnar Henderson L

7.9% 6.4% 7.6% 7.4% D 42 +525

175

Colton Cowser L

14.5% 13.2% 2.6% 11.0% D 38 —

202

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.3% 1.4% 2.9% 5.8% D 33 +525

203

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.5% 9.3% 0.0% 5.1% D 33 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.2% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.4% BRK 48.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 16.0% 14.0% C+ 62 +400

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

14.1% 12.9% 13.6% C 54 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Andruw Monasterio R

8.1% 8.5% 9.0% D 49 —

133

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.3% 7.6% 11.4% D 43 +525

148

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.6% 0.0% 2.9% D 41 +850

165

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.1% 5.3% 5.2% D 40 +750

173

Caleb Durbin R

2.9% 1.6% 2.7% D 38 +850

193

Carlos Narvaez R

7.8% 8.3% 7.0% D 35 +625

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Basallo Mayo Ward Taveras Contreras Abreu Monasterio Yoshida Durbin

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Willson Contreras +400 · 62

Wilyer Abreu +390 · 54

Samuel Basallo — · 50

Pete Alonso +350 · 51

Coby Mayo +400 · 49

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 2 mph out 63°F open

-3

↑

11 mph · cross

73°F

7:10p

-3

↑

11 mph · cross

74°F

8:10p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:10p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

74°F

10:10p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

74°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 63°F, wind 2 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 51 C +350 COOL 71 0.215 93.7 8.4% 13.8%vs LHP 401 19.2% 20.0% 19.1% 20

2 Samuel Basallo 50 C — WARM 72 0.207 91.3 8.5% 25.0%vs LHP 398 16.7% 22.2% 26.1% 21

3 Coby Mayo 49 D +400 HOT 92 0.202 92.3 8.0% 42.9%vs LHP 406 15.8% 33.3% 24.3% 10

4 Gunnar Henderson 42 D +525 COOL 139 0.179 89.5 6.4% 38.9%vs LHP 389 16.5% 10.0% 15.2% 30

5 Colton Cowser 38 D — WARM 175 0.139 86.9 7.7% 20.0%vs LHP 417 14.0% 0.0% 9.8% 14

6 Taylor Ward 33 D +525 · 202 0.108 89.3 5.7% 18.2%vs LHP 388 7.0% 20.0% 12.4% 24

7 Leody Taveras 33 D +850 WARM 203 0.131 87.2 5.1% 9.1%vs LHP 420 3.0% 20.0% 10.0% 13

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 62 C+ +400 WARM 16 0.258 90.6 10.9% 37.5%vs RHP 406 22.2% 33.3% 34.2% 14

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C +390 WARM 48 0.194 90.2 10.3% 13.6%vs RHP 405 14.7% 36.4% 19.5% 32

3 Andruw Monasterio 49 D — HOT 83 0.183 89.0 8.8% 4.0%vs RHP 383 20.8% 33.3% 16.8% 19

4 Jarren Duran 43 D +525 · 133 0.144 89.5 9.5% 30.0%vs RHP 398 13.2% 0.0% 10.4% 27

5 Masataka Yoshida 41 D +850 HOT 148 0.142 88.6 4.9% 10.5%vs RHP 367 12.8% 50.0% 13.6% 22

6 Ceddanne Rafaela 40 D +750 · 165 0.162 86.1 6.3% 12.8%vs RHP 372 8.5% 9.1% 10.2% 40

7 Caleb Durbin 38 D +850 COOL 173 0.151 84.9 4.7% 20.7%vs RHP 373 9.9% 18.2% 11.2% 38

8 Carlos Narvaez 35 D +625 COOL 193 0.089 91.4 7.7% 11.1%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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