TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CHC

Playable air · 1.07×

DET @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

7:05p

+15 ↑

8:05p

+12 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+10 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +16

Best of game Seiya Suzuki conv 28 · vs Valdez ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 26 · vs Peterson → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 66

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Seiya Suzuki +425 C ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman +625 D ●●●○○

3 Carson Kelly +625 D ●●●○○

FADE David Peterson LHP · NYM

leak 38

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson +390 C ●●●●○

2 Colt Keith — D ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +525 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 12.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Valdez Edge +425 0.196 · 89.2 · 7.9% 30.0% 25.7% F B O C 55

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Peterson Edge +390 0.209 · 89.8 · 10.0% 30.0% 21.9% F B O C 58

· — Riley Greene COOL vs Peterson +525 0.183 · 91.5 · 9.9% 20.0% 23.0% F B O C 55

· — Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Peterson Edge +500 0.263 · 89.7 · 8.7% 12.5% 28.2% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Valdez +525 0.230 · 90.1 · 8.5% 10.0% 28.1% F B O C 58

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Valdez Edge +475 0.209 · 89.6 · 9.0% 10.0% 13.6% F B O C 55

· — Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Peterson — 0.216 · 90.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Colt Keith HOT vs Peterson — 0.142 · 89.3 · 7.2% 28.6% 17.5% F B O D 46

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Valdez Edge +625 0.148 · 88.0 · 5.4% 30.0% 14.9% F B O D 44

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Valdez Edge +625 0.125 · 88.2 · 6.6% 25.0% 15.1% F B O D 43

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Valdez +700 0.161 · 88.3 · 8.2% 20.0% 13.2% F B O D 49

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Valdez Edge +575 0.194 · 89.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 48

· — Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Peterson +750 0.139 · 87.9 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 42

· — Gleyber Torres COOL vs Peterson Edge +625 0.121 · 85.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 41

· — Zach Mckinstry vs Peterson — 0.098 · 84.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Valdez Edge +950 0.095 · 86.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

· — Matt Vierling vs Peterson Edge +700 0.125 · 87.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.7% BRK 32.4% OFF 19.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.4% 12.3% 11.5% 10.6% C 58 +525

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

9.4% 9.1% 10.5% 9.4% C 55 +425

Ian Happ S Edge

14.7% 19.6% 3.3% 12.8% C 55 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Michael Busch L

12.4% 6.7% 3.0% 10.0% D 49 +700

Dansby Swanson R Edge

7.9% 4.0% 12.9% 7.3% D 48 +575

122

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.3% 7.2% 6.7% 5.3% D 44 +625

132

Carson Kelly R Edge

8.5% 3.7% 5.9% 6.9% D 43 +625

216

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 30 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Valdez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.1% ← leak BRK 35.8% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.8% 11.5% 6.1% 11.7% C+ 61 +500

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

17.5% 8.9% 21.1% 15.6% C 58 +390

Riley Greene L

15.9% 14.0% 8.2% 13.9% C 55 +525

Kerry Carpenter L

9.8% 11.4% 7.7% 9.8% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

107

Colt Keith L

7.6% 17.6% 4.3% 8.5% D 46 —

137

Kevin Mcgonigle L

9.7% 7.8% 2.0% 8.1% D 42 +750

152

Gleyber Torres R Edge

10.3% 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% D 41 +625

169

Matt Vierling R Edge

8.0% 2.8% 0.0% 5.2% D 39 +700

195

Zach Mckinstry L

3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.1% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Busch Bregman Kelly Dingler Torkelson Greene Keith

Legend

attack side — vs Valdez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Seiya Suzuki +425 · 55

Spencer Torkelson +390 · 58

Riley Greene +525 · 55

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph out 76°F open

+16

↑

14 mph · out

73°F

7:05p · peak

+15

↑

15 mph · out

72°F

8:05p

+12

↑

15 mph · slight_out

70°F

9:05p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:05p

+10

↑

15 mph · slight_out

68°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 76°F, wind 3 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 58 C +525 COOL 21 0.230 90.1 8.5% 23.8%vs LHP 393 19.0% 10.0% 28.1% 23

2 Seiya Suzuki 55 C +425 WARM 37 0.196 89.2 7.9% 31.2%vs LHP 408 15.2% 30.0% 25.7% 30

3 Ian Happ 55 C +475 COOL 43 0.209 89.6 9.0% 15.4%vs LHP 402 19.2% 10.0% 13.6% 25

4 Michael Busch 49 D +700 COOL 86 0.161 88.3 8.2% 10.7%vs LHP 403 13.9% 20.0% 13.2% 30

5 Dansby Swanson 48 D +575 COOL 94 0.194 89.8 7.0% 23.8%vs LHP 403 13.3% 0.0% 14.0% 30

6 Alex Bregman 44 D +625 WARM 122 0.148 88.0 5.4% 9.5%vs LHP 391 9.2% 30.0% 14.9% 33

7 Carson Kelly 43 D +625 WARM 132 0.125 88.2 6.6% 19.1%vs LHP 416 7.1% 25.0% 15.1% 20

8 Nico Hoerner 30 D +950 WARM 216 0.095 86.0 2.3% 8.7%vs LHP 383 4.0% 0.0% 7.7% 36

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 61 C+ +500 COOL 17 0.263 89.7 8.7% 22.7%vs LHP 397 19.6% 12.5% 28.2% 19

2 Spencer Torkelson 58 C +390 COOL 24 0.209 89.8 10.0% 15.0%vs LHP 394 16.5% 30.0% 21.9% 25

3 Riley Greene 55 C +525 COOL 39 0.183 91.5 9.9% 12.5%vs LHP 398 13.3% 20.0% 23.0% 22

4 Kerry Carpenter 52 C — COOL 64 0.216 90.1 8.4% 0.0%vs LHP 380 15.6% 0.0% 12.8% 17

5 Colt Keith 46 D — HOT 107 0.142 89.3 7.2% 11.0% 389 7.3% 28.6% 17.5% 18

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 42 D +750 COOL 137 0.139 87.9 7.3% 7.7%vs LHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 32

7 Gleyber Torres 41 D +625 COOL 152 0.121 85.3 7.3% 14.3%vs LHP 388 7.1% 0.0% 10.1% 2

8 Matt Vierling 39 D +700 · 169 0.125 87.6 6.0% 8.7%vs LHP 377 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 23

9 Zach Mckinstry 34 D — WARM 195 0.098 84.7 4.3% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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