21
HRs allowed
10.0%
HR rate (pool)
11.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.03
FIP
4.2
xFIP
-0.18
FIP − xFIP gap
#15
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
36
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 36th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
13.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
80.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 115.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 47.6%
BRK 33.3%
OFF 19.0%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
44.8%
86.4
8.5°
5
-0.2
Curveball Breaking
28.7%
83.1
1.8°
4
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
19.0%
85.5
3.5°
4
+0.2
Slider Breaking
4.6%
80.6
14.9°
1
-0.4
Fastball Hard
2.8%
76.6
16.7°
0
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups210
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate10.0%
Pool HR/game day0.84
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB11.4% 36
HR/9—
FIP4.03 49
xFIP4.2
FIP − xFIP-0.18 34
Barrel% allowed13.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed80.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Sinker
Hard · 44.8% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.4 mph
Avg launch angle8.5°
HRs allowed5
Pitches1064
Curveball
Breaking · 28.7% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle1.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches682
Changeup
Offspeed · 19.0% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle3.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches451
Slider
Breaking · 4.6% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle14.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches109
Fastball
Hard · 2.8% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.6 mph
Avg launch angle16.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches66
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 391 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-24
9
1
115.5
2026-08-17
9
0
111.0
2026-08-12
8
1
112.7
2026-08-06
9
0
108.9
2026-08-01
7
1
107.2
2026-07-26
7
1
106.6
2026-07-21
8
0
101.4
2026-07-09
9
0
106.5
2026-07-02
8
1
112.0
2026-06-27
9
1
108.7
2026-06-22
7
1
105.8
2026-06-16
6
0
105.0
2026-06-10
8
2
107.6
2026-06-05
7
1
106.4
2026-05-30
9
3
106.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Comerica Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.947
Wind
5 mph from SSW
Temp
73°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:40p
5
73°
-4
2:40p
6
74°
-5
3:40p
7
75°
-6
4:40p
8
76°
-7
5:40p
8
75°
-8
-6
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 7 mph from SSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
345ft
deep
CF
412ft
deep
RF
330ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
346ft
5 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
356ft
8 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 330 ft
HRs allowed avg 391 ft · n=21
Deep left-center
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
91
12
13%
9
3
33%
9
2
22%
18
1
6%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 14. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Framber Valdez
Is Framber Valdez likely to give up a home run tonight?
Framber Valdez pitches tonight (LAD @ DET at Comerica Park). This season he has allowed 21 home runs across 25 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Framber Valdez allowed this season?
Framber Valdez has allowed 21 home runs across 25 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Framber Valdez?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Framber Valdez include Nick Kurtz (2), Trent Grisham (2), Willson Contreras (2) and 31 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.