TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.83×

CIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 3 mph slight_out 66°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+2 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +4

Best of game Cole Young conv 28 · vs Burns ⟷ Nathaniel Lowe conv 31 · vs Castillo → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 93

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cole Young +700 D ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +475 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 80

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathaniel Lowe — D ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz +370 C ●●●●○

3 Sal Stewart +390 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Castillo Edge +370 0.232 · 94.4 · 11.6% 30.0% 21.2% F B O C 54

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Castillo +390 0.219 · 90.6 · 11.4% 20.0% 19.4% F B O C 51

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Burns Edge +390 0.263 · 92.8 · 11.4% 12.5% 16.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe HOT vs Castillo Edge — 0.218 · 89.2 · 10.2% 40.0% 22.9% F B O D 49

· SEA Cole Young vs Burns Edge +700 0.167 · 88.5 · 6.9% 40.0% 16.7% F B O D 40

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Burns +475 0.171 · 91.1 · 8.3% 20.0% 12.6% F B O D 40

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Castillo — 0.155 · 90.8 · 10.1% 14.3% 12.8% F B O D 40

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Castillo Edge +350 0.242 · 89.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 24.4% F B O D 46

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Castillo +475 0.194 · 89.8 · 10.5% 10.0% 14.1% F B O D 45

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Burns Edge +320 0.137 · 88.1 · 9.8% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Castillo +390 0.180 · 88.2 · 9.6% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 38

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Burns Edge +425 0.226 · 90.5 · 12.1% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 47

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Burns Edge +700 0.180 · 86.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 36

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.137 · — · 7.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 29

· SEA Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Burns — 0.165 · 90.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Burns Edge +575 0.100 · 87.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 27

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Castillo Edge +850 0.094 · 87.3 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.9% ← leak BRK 27.3% OFF 12.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.3% 12.8% 4.1% 15.2% C 54 +370

Sal Stewart R

16.6% 9.1% 10.7% 13.5% C 51 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

9.3% 10.0% 12.9% 10.1% D 49 —

105

Jj Bleday L Edge

10.8% 9.8% 6.2% 9.4% D 46 +350

115

Spencer Steer R

12.9% 10.5% 12.5% 12.2% D 45 +475

158

Tyler Stephenson R

13.1% 4.2% 5.9% 9.9% D 40 —

171

Eugenio Suarez R

12.0% 2.9% 7.7% 9.7% D 38 +390

227

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.9% 4.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.9% usage) carries Castillo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.1% ← leak BRK 37.1% OFF 5.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.8% 17.6% 7.7% 15.0% C 51 +390

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

100

Luke Raley L Edge

19.8% 13.9% 6.9% 16.1% D 47 +425

157

Cole Young L Edge

5.7% 11.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 40 +700

159

Randy Arozarena R

8.5% 9.9% 4.5% 8.2% D 40 +475

180

Julio Rodríguez R

9.9% 7.3% 9.1% 9.1% D 38 —

187

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.2% 12.2% 10.5% 10.8% D 37 +320

189

Colt Emerson L Edge

6.0% 7.4% 5.6% 6.3% D 36 +700

218

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.4% 8.2% 12.0% 6.8% D 29 —

226

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.5% 7.6% 2.0% 4.8% D 27 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.1% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Lowe Stephenson Canzone Young Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz +370 · 54

Sal Stewart +390 · 51

Nathaniel Lowe — · 49

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 3 mph slight_out 66°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

85°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

83°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · out

80°F

8:40p

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.83× 66°F, wind 3 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 54 C +370 · 47 0.232 94.4 11.6% 17.8%vs RHP 398 16.7% 30.0% 21.2% 33

2 Sal Stewart 51 C +390 COOL 67 0.219 90.6 11.4% 21.0%vs RHP 393 13.1% 20.0% 19.4% 33

3 Nathaniel Lowe 49 D — HOT 82 0.218 89.2 10.2% 30.3%vs RHP 398 16.4% 40.0% 22.9% 10

4 Jj Bleday 46 D +350 · 105 0.242 89.1 9.5% 26.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 26

5 Spencer Steer 45 D +475 COOL 115 0.194 89.8 10.5% 20.8%vs RHP 394 13.2% 10.0% 14.1% 29

6 Tyler Stephenson 40 D — WARM 158 0.155 90.8 10.1% 15.8%vs RHP 395 7.9% 14.3% 12.8% 20

7 Eugenio Suarez 38 D +390 HOT 171 0.180 88.2 9.6% 25.8%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 16

8 Tj Friedl 27 D +850 COOL 227 0.094 87.3 5.0% 9.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 14

vs Chase Burns · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 51 C +390 COOL 68 0.263 92.8 11.4% 29.8%vs RHP 400 17.1% 12.5% 16.6% 26

2 Luke Raley 47 D +425 COOL 100 0.226 90.5 12.1% 32.6%vs RHP 385 13.9% 0.0% 15.7% 21

3 Cole Young 40 D +700 WARM 157 0.167 88.5 6.9% 17.5%vs RHP 388 12.5% 40.0% 16.7% 30

4 Randy Arozarena 40 D +475 · 159 0.171 91.1 8.3% 24.4%vs RHP 393 11.2% 20.0% 12.6% 27

5 Julio Rodríguez 38 D — COOL 180 0.165 90.1 8.8% 17.9%vs RHP 410 15.5% 0.0% 7.5% 8

6 Cal Raleigh 37 D +320 · 187 0.137 88.1 9.8% 13.3%vs RHP 390 13.0% 10.0% 7.6% 23

7 Colt Emerson 36 D +700 · 189 0.180 86.4 7.3% 33.3%vs RHP 369 12.1% 0.0% 12.6% 19

8 J.P. Crawford 29 D — COOL 218 0.137 — 7.6% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 26

9 Josh Naylor 27 D +575 · 226 0.100 87.6 6.5% 13.2%vs RHP 390 7.5% 0.0% 7.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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