11
HRs allowed
8.6%
HR rate (pool)
13.8%
Overall HR/FB
3.99
FIP
4.17
xFIP
-0.18
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
62
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 62th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.1 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 114.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Luis Castillo.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
44.2%
82.5
35.6°
5
+0.8
Slider Breaking
27.3%
84.2
13.9°
4
+0.2
Sinker Hard
15.7%
84.2
7.8°
1
-0.3
Changeup Offspeed
12.6%
85.2
9.0°
2
+1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups128
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate8.6%
Pool HR/game day0.73
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB13.8% 62
HR/9—
FIP3.99 47
xFIP4.17
FIP − xFIP-0.18 37
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 44.2% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle35.6°
HRs allowed5
Pitches726
Slider
Breaking · 27.3% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle13.9°
HRs allowed4
Pitches448
Sinker
Hard · 15.7% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle7.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches257
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.6% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle9.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches207
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Luis Castillo.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.1 EV · 399 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
8
3
105.6
2026-07-03
6
0
106.5
2026-06-26
7
0
103.5
2026-06-13
8
0
109.1
2026-06-07
9
1
109.4
2026-05-25
9
1
104.7
2026-05-14
9
1
110.7
2026-05-09
9
2
112.9
2026-05-03
9
0
107.8
2026-04-27
9
1
109.0
2026-04-21
9
2
114.7
2026-04-16
9
0
109.0
2026-04-11
9
0
112.3
2026-04-05
9
0
111.3
2026-03-30
9
0
105.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Luis Castillo isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.