TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ AZ

Suppressed air · 0.96×

ATH @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 3 mph slight_out 84°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:40p

+16 ↑

7:40p

+13 ↑

8:40p

+7 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at +16

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 24 · vs Perkins ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 33 · vs Proxy → edge: Tyler Soderstrom

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 90

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +400 D ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte +390 D ●●○○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 59

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +475 C ●●●●●

2 Shea Langeliers +290 C+ ●●●○○

3 Carlos Cortes — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Tyler Soderstrom: Match 23.5% · 14D pace 42.9% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom ✶ vs Proxy +475 0.242 · 90.4 · 10.5% 42.9% 23.5% F B O C 56

· ATH Shea Langeliers HOT vs Proxy +290 0.237 · 91.9 · 15.1% 20.0% 23.4% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs Perkins +575 0.184 · 85.5 · 7.6% 30.0% 17.9% F B O D 44

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.160 · 90.0 · 7.7% 20.0% 14.4% F B O D 40

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Proxy +950 0.110 · 84.2 · 1.9% 20.0% 7.2% F B O D 28

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Perkins Edge +400 0.226 · 91.3 · 9.7% 10.0% 14.2% F B O D 49

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Perkins Edge +390 0.196 · 91.1 · 9.2% 10.0% 11.4% F B O D 46

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Proxy +750 0.090 · 90.2 · 6.3% 12.5% 7.0% F B O D 33

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Perkins Edge +850 0.118 · 86.9 · 5.0% 10.0% 7.0% F B O D 31

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Perkins Edge +700 0.130 · 88.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Perkins +750 0.158 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Perkins Edge — 0.152 · 87.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs Proxy — 0.105 · 89.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Proxy — 0.072 · 86.4 · 0.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 48.7% ← leak BRK 33.2% OFF 18.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.7% 14.8% 7.5% 11.3% D 49 +400

108

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.9% 7.4% 4.0% 10.6% D 46 +390

121

Nolan Arenado R

10.2% 1.2% 3.8% 6.7% D 44 +575

185

Gabriel Moreno R

7.6% 8.2% 10.7% 8.2% D 37 +750

190

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 36 +700

205

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% D 33 —

215

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.7% usage) carries Perkins's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Langeliers Soderstrom Cortes Wilson Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tyler Soderstrom +475 · 56

Shea Langeliers +290 · 61

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.88× Wind 3 mph slight_out 84°F retractable

+12

↑

16 mph · out

91°F

6:40p

+16

↑

19 mph · out

83°F

7:40p · peak

+13

↑

18 mph · out

81°F

8:40p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

82°F

9:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

83°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 84°F, wind 3 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 61 C+ +290 HOT 28 0.237 91.9 15.1% 20.0% 416 20.0% 20.0% 23.4% 17

2 Tyler Soderstrom ✶ 56 C +475 WARM 60 0.242 90.4 10.5% 18.9% 403 16.5% 42.9% 23.5% 21

3 Carlos Cortes 40 D — COOL 188 0.160 90.0 7.7% 13.0% 403 5.8% 20.0% 14.4% 12

4 Henry Bolte 33 D +750 COOL 217 0.090 90.2 6.3% 12.0% 422 10.0% 12.5% 7.0% 20

5 Lawrence Butler 31 D — COOL 224 0.105 89.0 5.8% 15.4% 402 3.7% 0.0% 7.2% 19

6 Jacob Wilson 28 D +950 WARM 229 0.110 84.2 1.9% 9.4% 382 7.0% 20.0% 7.2% 37

7 Jeff Mcneil 21 D — COOL 231 0.072 86.4 0.8% 4.3% 373 3.8% 0.0% 6.0% 14

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 49 D +400 · 85 0.226 91.3 9.7% 21.1%vs RHP 403 13.8% 10.0% 14.2% 21

2 Ketel Marte 46 D +390 COOL 108 0.196 91.1 9.2% 14.7%vs RHP 413 15.9% 10.0% 11.4% 32

3 Nolan Arenado 44 D +575 HOT 121 0.184 85.5 7.6% 18.4%vs RHP 391 13.0% 30.0% 17.9% 25

4 Gabriel Moreno 37 D +750 COOL 185 0.158 89.3 7.6% 15.4%vs RHP 395 7.3% 0.0% 8.8% 32

5 Adrian Del Castillo 36 D +700 COOL 190 0.130 88.9 7.2% 17.9%vs RHP 400 8.3% 0.0% 9.9% 3

6 Ildemaro Vargas 33 D — WARM 205 0.152 87.3 5.3% 10.0%vs RHP 399 5.6% 0.0% 8.2% 18

7 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D +850 COOL 215 0.118 86.9 5.0% 8.6%vs RHP 386 7.1% 10.0% 7.0% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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