13
HRs allowed
19.1%
HR rate (pool)
12.2%
Overall HR/FB
3.75
FIP
3.85
xFIP
-0.09
FIP − xFIP gap
#8
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
44
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 44th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
63.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.2 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 109.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 49.0%
BRK 31.1%
OFF 19.7%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 8 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.6%
82.7
30.0°
7
+1.6
Sweeper Breaking
28.9%
80.9
14.7°
3
-0.4
Changeup Offspeed
19.7%
80.9
-0.4°
0
-1.1
Cutter Hard
9.9%
82.0
13.1°
1
+1.2
Sinker Hard
3.5%
84.7
1.4°
2
+5.7
Slider Breaking
2.2%
77.7
3.6°
0
-5.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups68
HRs allowed (pool)13
Pool HR rate19.1%
Pool HR/game day1.44
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB12.2% 44
HR/9—
FIP3.75 37
xFIP3.85
FIP − xFIP-0.09 39
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed63.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Fastball
Hard · 35.6% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle30.0°
HRs allowed7
Pitches444
Sweeper
Breaking · 28.9% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle14.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches361
Changeup
Offspeed · 19.7% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle-0.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches246
Cutter
Hard · 9.9% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches124
Sinker
Hard · 3.5% usage
+5.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches44
Slider
Breaking · 2.2% usage
-5.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.7 mph
Avg launch angle3.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
13 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.2 EV · 387 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-01
7
2
103.7
2026-07-27
8
1
102.8
2026-07-21
7
0
104.1
2026-07-03
8
4
108.6
2026-06-27
8
0
109.0
2026-06-21
7
3
104.6
2026-06-16
7
2
106.0
2026-06-10
9
0
101.1
2026-06-05
7
1
105.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Fenway Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.897
Wind
2 mph from SW
Temp
91°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
2
91°
+1
8:10p
2
91°
+1
9:10p
2
91°
+1
10:10p
2
91°
+1
11:10p
2
91°
+1
+1
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 2 mph from SW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
310ft
short
CF
390ft
short
RF
302ft
short
vs LHH → RF
354ft
6 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
323ft
6 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: RF 302 ft
HRs allowed avg 387 ft · n=13
Green Monster (37 ft) in LF; straightaway CF 390, deep RCF triangle ~420; Pesky's Pole 302 in RF
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
37
12
32%
7
1
14%
9
0
0%
8
0
0%
7
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.