TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.98×

STL @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 2 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

6:38p

-8 ↑

7:38p

-7 ↑

8:38p

-7 ↑

9:38p

-6 ↑

10:38p

conditions build late — the 10:38p window peaks -6

Best of game Jo Adell conv 19 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 23 · vs Ureña → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 80

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jo Adell +330 D ●●●○○

2 Mike Trout +305 C ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 59

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +370 C ●●●●○

2 Jj Wetherholt +525 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +370 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Ureña +370 0.237 · 93.8 · 9.0% 27.3% 19.7% F B O C 57

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Liberatore Edge +305 0.226 · 90.7 · 13.5% 11.1% 15.6% F B O C 59

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Liberatore Edge +290 0.209 · 89.3 · 11.0% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Ureña Edge +525 0.140 · 90.0 · 6.5% 33.3% 7.7% F B O D 40

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Liberatore Edge +330 0.142 · 89.5 · 8.7% 20.0% 17.8% F B O D 47

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Liberatore — 0.148 · 88.9 · 9.3% 11.1% 10.7% F B O D 45

· STL Alec Burleson vs Ureña Edge +370 0.187 · 91.7 · 8.1% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 47

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Liberatore Edge +700 0.139 · 89.3 · 7.8% 12.5% 6.6% F B O D 42

· STL José Fermín vs Ureña — 0.120 · 85.4 · 3.5% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 33

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Liberatore Edge +350 0.187 · 88.1 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 49

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Liberatore — 0.115 · 87.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 34

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Liberatore Edge +625 0.133 · 87.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Ureña +700 0.142 · 89.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Ureña Edge +750 0.141 · 85.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

· STL Masyn Winn vs Ureña +750 0.085 · 88.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe vs Liberatore Edge +425 0.095 · 87.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.5% ← leak OFF 32.8% BRK 15.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.9% 16.1% 12.9% 14.4% C 57 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

103

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.4% 10.3% 11.6% 11.2% D 47 +370

166

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.4% 2.3% 3.8% 8.2% D 40 +525

178

Nathan Church L Edge

9.3% 6.4% 6.1% 7.5% D 38 +750

194

Ivan Herrera R

5.6% 7.9% 6.1% 6.1% D 34 +700

206

José Fermín R

2.2% 0.0% 2.6% 2.0% D 33 —

222

Masyn Winn R

3.4% 3.3% 2.2% 3.0% D 29 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.5% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.8% BRK 39.8% OFF 15.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R Edge

18.2% 29.4% 10.0% 19.3% C 59 +305

Zach Neto R Edge

16.2% 9.2% 6.7% 12.9% C 54 +290

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R Edge

15.2% 10.5% 0.0% 12.3% D 49 +350

Jo Adell R Edge

8.6% 6.9% 5.9% 7.8% D 47 +330

118

Josh Lowe L

12.7% 2.6% 8.0% 8.9% D 45 —

145

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.5% 6.6% 0.0% 6.5% D 42 +700

154

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.5% 7.5% 12.0% 7.6% D 41 +625

170

Logan O'Hoppe R Edge

10.6% 8.9% 14.3% 10.4% D 39 +425

197

Nolan Schanuel L

2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 2.0% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Wetherholt Trout Adell

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jordan Walker +370 · 57

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 2 mph in 70°F open

-9

↑

11 mph · in

85°F

6:38p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

82°F

7:38p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

80°F

8:38p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

78°F

9:38p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

10:38p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 70°F, wind 2 mph S (in) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 57 C +370 · 31 0.237 93.8 9.0% 33.3%vs RHP 406 19.5% 27.3% 19.7% 35

2 Alec Burleson 47 D +370 WARM 103 0.187 91.7 8.1% 21.3%vs RHP 407 16.0% 9.1% 10.8% 35

3 Jj Wetherholt 40 D +525 · 166 0.140 90.0 6.5% 18.0%vs RHP 388 20.0% 33.3% 7.7% 30

4 Nathan Church 38 D +750 COOL 178 0.141 85.9 6.7% 21.4%vs RHP 388 9.2% 0.0% 8.1% 24

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D +700 COOL 194 0.142 89.1 5.6% 17.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 36

6 José Fermín 33 D — WARM 206 0.120 85.4 3.5% 12.5%vs RHP 384 5.6% 10.0% 7.5% 24

7 Masyn Winn 29 D +750 WARM 222 0.085 88.1 4.3% 12.1%vs RHP 390 4.3% 0.0% 7.4% 26

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 59 C +305 COOL 20 0.226 90.7 13.5% 23.5%vs LHP 409 17.7% 11.1% 15.6% 20

2 Zach Neto 54 C +290 COOL 52 0.209 89.3 11.0% 20.0%vs LHP 402 18.1% 0.0% 13.7% 28

3 Jorge Soler 49 D +350 WARM 90 0.187 88.1 10.3% 13.3%vs LHP 398 13.0% 0.0% 11.2% 17

4 Jo Adell 47 D +330 COOL 99 0.142 89.5 8.7% 32.0%vs LHP 409 11.7% 20.0% 17.8% 28

5 Josh Lowe 45 D — COOL 118 0.148 88.9 9.3% 13.3% 396 11.5% 11.1% 10.7% 20

6 Vaughn Grissom 42 D +700 · 145 0.139 89.3 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 8.6% 12.5% 6.6% 27

7 Oswald Peraza 41 D +625 COOL 154 0.133 87.4 8.5% 27.8%vs LHP 386 6.9% 0.0% 9.5% 12

8 Logan O'Hoppe 39 D +425 WARM 170 0.095 87.2 9.9% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.7% 0.0% 6.2% 19

9 Nolan Schanuel 34 D — COOL 197 0.115 87.2 4.3% 20.0%vs LHP 372 7.3% 0.0% 10.2% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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