TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.14×

LAD @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+10 ↑

7:40p

+10 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+12 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +12

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 36 · vs Wrobleski ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 32 · vs Wheeler → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Justin Wrobleski LHP · LAD

leak 90

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +198 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +425 D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Harper +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 85

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +220 C+ ●●●●●

2 Mookie Betts +525 D ●●○○○

3 Max Muncy +330 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Wrobleski +198 0.310 · 93.5 · 12.1% 30.0% 42.2% F B O B 74

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Wheeler Edge +220 0.248 · 93.4 · 10.3% 30.0% 33.9% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Max Muncy vs Wheeler Edge +330 0.234 · 90.1 · 9.1% 10.0% 20.6% F B O C 58

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Wrobleski +370 0.230 · 90.1 · 9.2% 10.0% 16.3% F B O C 58

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Wheeler +500 0.193 · 89.0 · 7.2% 10.0% 16.0% F B O C 50

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Wrobleski +500 0.179 · 89.6 · 8.3% 11.1% 13.9% F B O C 51

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Wheeler Edge +390 0.214 · 89.0 · 8.4% 0.0% 19.8% F B O C 50

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Wheeler Edge +370 0.189 · 90.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Wrobleski Edge +425 0.130 · 88.7 · 6.9% 33.3% 11.4% F B O D 47

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Wheeler +525 0.169 · 90.4 · 6.9% 10.0% 22.5% F B O D 48

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Wrobleski Edge +500 0.141 · 90.3 · 6.4% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 44

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Wheeler +525 0.162 · 90.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 43

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Wheeler Edge — 0.094 · 88.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 37

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Wrobleski +700 0.144 · 89.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 44

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Wheeler Edge +500 0.122 · 88.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Wrobleski — 0.092 · 86.7 · 2.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 32

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +500 0.131 · — · 6.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.5% ← leak BRK 22.5% OFF 15.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

21.6% 12.0% 14.9% 17.6% C+ 66 +220

Max Muncy L Edge

18.3% 14.8% 7.1% 14.6% C 58 +330

Dalton Rushing L Edge

11.7% 17.9% 3.1% 11.5% C 50 +390

Andy Pages R

8.2% 9.0% 6.9% 8.3% C 50 +500

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.5% 9.9% 10.2% 10.3% C 50 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

10.3% 3.8% 6.7% 8.2% D 48 +525

131

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.6% 14.7% 9.1% 11.2% D 43 +525

167

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.7% 3.6% 1.6% 5.5% D 39 +500

184

Alex Freeland L Edge

6.0% 10.3% 3.8% 6.5% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.5% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.7% ← leak BRK 37.6% OFF 4.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L

20.0% 15.9% 26.9% 19.5% B 74 +198

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L

8.8% 16.0% 8.6% 11.2% C 58 +370

Brandon Marsh L

8.3% 14.9% 2.7% 9.4% C 51 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

102

Trea Turner R Edge

8.7% 4.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 47 +425

126

Bryson Stott L

8.2% 5.1% 6.1% 6.9% D 44 +700

128

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.7% 5.2% 6.7% 5.0% D 44 +500

183

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

4.6% 4.2% 8.3% 4.7% D 37 +500

208

Justin Crawford L

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.7% usage) carries Wrobleski's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts Schwarber Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Wrobleski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber +198 · 74

Shohei Ohtani +220 · 66

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

6:40p

+10

↑

9 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:40p

+10

↑

9 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:40p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

+12

↑

8 mph · out

72°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 73°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +220 WARM 11 0.248 93.4 10.3% 23.6%vs RHP 405 19.8% 30.0% 33.9% 26

2 Max Muncy 58 C +330 · 25 0.234 90.1 9.1% 24.3%vs RHP 409 18.0% 10.0% 20.6% 19

3 Dalton Rushing 50 C +390 COOL 75 0.214 89.0 8.4% 36.0%vs RHP 396 5.0% 0.0% 19.8% 9

4 Andy Pages 50 C +500 COOL 77 0.193 89.0 7.2% 21.8%vs RHP 391 14.3% 10.0% 16.0% 21

5 Freddie Freeman 50 C +370 COOL 79 0.189 90.5 8.0% 17.5%vs RHP 398 13.4% 0.0% 14.4% 24

6 Mookie Betts 48 D +525 COOL 93 0.169 90.4 6.9% 18.0%vs RHP 385 11.9% 10.0% 22.5% 24

7 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +525 COOL 131 0.162 90.0 7.8% 20.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 20

8 Kyle Tucker 39 D +500 WARM 167 0.122 88.8 5.9% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.3% 0.0% 9.0% 26

9 Alex Freeland 37 D — WARM 184 0.094 88.7 5.7% 9.7%vs RHP 373 2.7% 0.0% 11.2% 4

vs Justin Wrobleski · LHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 74 B +198 · 3 0.310 93.5 12.1% 44.8%vs LHP 403 25.8% 30.0% 42.2% 21

2 Bryce Harper 58 C +370 COOL 27 0.230 90.1 9.2% 10.3%vs LHP 400 19.8% 10.0% 16.3% 27

3 Brandon Marsh 51 C +500 COOL 70 0.179 89.6 8.3% 16.7%vs LHP 392 14.1% 11.1% 13.9% 23

4 Trea Turner 47 D +425 WARM 102 0.130 88.7 6.9% 6.2%vs LHP 394 13.8% 33.3% 11.4% 27

5 Bryson Stott 44 D +700 COOL 126 0.144 89.0 7.3% 9.1%vs LHP 393 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% 28

6 Alec Bohm 44 D +500 WARM 128 0.141 90.3 6.4% 12.9%vs LHP 394 11.8% 10.0% 8.1% 29

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +500 COOL 183 0.131 — 6.0% 5.0%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 25

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — COOL 208 0.092 86.7 2.6% 4.3% 382 2.9% 0.0% 8.4% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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