TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CLE

Playable air · 1.06×

MIN @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 1 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+8 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+14 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +14

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 21 · vs Messick ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 30 · vs Rojas → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 83

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +390 C ●●●○○

2 Kody Clemens — C ●●●○○

3 Byron Buxton +255 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Kendry Rojas LHP · MIN

leak 3

0.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.71 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +390 C ●●●●●

2 Travis Bazzana +575 C ●●●●○

3 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: 19.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Rojas Edge +390 0.183 · 88.6 · 9.8% 42.9% 16.4% F B O C 54

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Rojas +575 0.185 · 88.3 · 6.2% 27.3% 18.9% F B O C 50

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Messick Edge +390 0.174 · 89.4 · 8.7% 22.2% 20.3% F B O C 50

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Messick — 0.256 · 92.7 · 8.7% 10.0% 27.6% F B O C 58

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ COOL vs Messick Edge +255 0.316 · 90.7 · 10.4% 0.0% 24.3% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Rojas Edge +750 0.131 · 86.6 · 4.8% 27.3% 10.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Messick — 0.161 · 87.1 · 6.4% 11.1% 11.1% F B O D 41

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Rojas +425 0.186 · 90.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 20.7% F B O D 47

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Messick Edge +700 0.175 · 88.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Messick Edge +500 0.171 · 90.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· CLE Daniel Schneemann vs Rojas +525 0.128 · 88.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Messick Edge +750 0.136 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 37

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Rojas +475 0.144 · 89.2 · 9.3% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 45

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Messick Edge +950 0.095 · 84.3 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· MIN Austin Martin vs Messick Edge +950 0.074 · 86.9 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 29

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Rojas +950 0.057 · 83.1 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak OFF 24.0% BRK 17.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Byron Buxton R Edge

21.7% 14.8% 17.2% 19.7% C+ 64 +255

Kody Clemens L

10.6% 12.2% 20.7% 13.3% C 58 —

Royce Lewis R Edge

15.1% 9.1% 11.3% 13.3% C 50 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

125

Josh Bell S Edge

10.1% 6.2% 14.8% 10.2% D 44 +500

149

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.1% 1.3% 1.2% 4.0% D 41 +700

150

Trevor Larnach L

8.7% 3.1% 8.3% 7.8% D 41 —

182

Victor Caratini S Edge

6.9% 6.7% 14.8% 8.0% D 37 +750

214

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.7% 0.0% 3.8% 3.3% D 31 +950

221

Austin Martin R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.6% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 17.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

9.1% 14.3% 16.7% 11.0% C 54 +390

Travis Bazzana L

5.7% 4.3% 4.3% 5.2% C 50 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Chase Delauter L

10.8% 6.0% 1.9% 7.8% D 47 +425

111

Kyle Manzardo L

11.5% 10.9% 8.1% 10.7% D 45 +475

141

Daniel Schneemann L

12.4% 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% D 42 +525

151

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.6% 3.9% 1.3% 3.1% D 41 +750

228

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 26 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.6% usage) carries Rojas's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Lewis Hoskins Bazzana Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Travis Bazzana +575 · 50

Royce Lewis +390 · 50

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 1 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

12 mph · cross

78°F

6:40p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:40p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:40p

+11

↑

14 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:40p

+14

↑

14 mph · out

73°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 73°F, wind 1 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 64 C+ +255 COOL 13 0.316 90.7 10.4% 28.6%vs LHP 402 30.7% 0.0% 24.3% 3

2 Kody Clemens 58 C — · 22 0.256 92.7 8.7% 29.4%vs LHP 389 19.3% 10.0% 27.6% 25

3 Royce Lewis 50 C +390 WARM 74 0.174 89.4 8.7% 16.7%vs LHP 396 17.2% 22.2% 20.3% 24

4 Josh Bell 44 D +500 COOL 125 0.171 90.0 7.7% 11.1%vs LHP 404 10.7% 0.0% 10.9% 30

5 Brooks Lee 41 D +700 COOL 149 0.175 88.0 4.7% 15.4%vs LHP 367 14.3% 0.0% 11.9% 30

6 Trevor Larnach 41 D — COOL 150 0.161 87.1 6.4% 28.6%vs LHP 399 7.4% 11.1% 11.1% 25

7 Victor Caratini 37 D +750 COOL 182 0.136 89.5 6.6% 15.4%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 20

8 Luke Keaschall 31 D +950 WARM 214 0.095 84.3 4.2% 4.8%vs LHP 370 4.8% 0.0% 7.5% 22

9 Austin Martin 29 D +950 WARM 221 0.074 86.9 3.5% 4.2%vs LHP 392 1.9% 0.0% 7.5% 11

vs Kendry Rojas · LHP 0.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.71 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 54 C +390 HOT 50 0.183 88.6 9.8% 21.1%vs LHP 383 13.9% 42.9% 16.4% 14

2 Travis Bazzana 50 C +575 WARM 76 0.185 88.3 6.2% 11.1%vs LHP 398 14.3% 27.3% 18.9% 25

3 Chase Delauter 47 D +425 HOT 97 0.186 90.9 7.5% 14.3%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 34

4 Kyle Manzardo 45 D +475 WARM 111 0.144 89.2 9.3% 10.0%vs LHP 389 10.2% 0.0% 8.9% 20

5 Daniel Schneemann 42 D +525 · 141 0.128 88.1 8.1% 22.2%vs LHP 398 6.5% 0.0% 9.6% 13

6 Brayan Rocchio 41 D +750 WARM 151 0.131 86.6 4.8% 12.0%vs LHP 386 8.6% 27.3% 10.4% 35

7 Steven Kwan 26 D +950 COOL 228 0.057 83.1 1.8% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 6.7% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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