21
HRs allowed
9.1%
HR rate (pool)
14.2%
Overall HR/FB
2.97
FIP
3.24
xFIP
-0.27
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
61
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 61th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
13.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.1 EV · 388 ft
max EV allowed 114.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Parker Messick.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
39.9%
81.4
31.7°
4
-2.4
Changeup Offspeed
23.7%
80.3
2.0°
0
-0.6
Sinker Hard
15.8%
84.9
11.4°
1
-2.7
Curveball Breaking
9.2%
79.6
19.2°
3
+2.3
Slider Breaking
6.0%
79.1
15.7°
3
+0.1
Cutter Hard
5.4%
74.2
24.6°
3
+1.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups231
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate9.1%
Pool HR/game day0.78
Top-15 matchups11
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.2% 61
HR/9—
FIP2.97 12
xFIP3.24
FIP − xFIP-0.27 29
Barrel% allowed13.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Fastball
Hard · 39.9% usage
-2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle31.7°
HRs allowed4
Pitches1028
Changeup
Offspeed · 23.7% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle2.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches610
Sinker
Hard · 15.8% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches406
Curveball
Breaking · 9.2% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.6 mph
Avg launch angle19.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches238
Slider
Breaking · 6.0% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.1 mph
Avg launch angle15.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches154
Cutter
Hard · 5.4% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.2 mph
Avg launch angle24.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches140
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Parker Messick.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.1 EV · 388 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-30
9
0
109.9
2026-08-24
5
0
108.3
2026-08-19
9
0
101.7
2026-08-13
9
1
103.6
2026-08-07
9
2
111.3
2026-08-01
9
3
106.4
2026-07-26
9
0
106.8
2026-07-21
9
1
106.1
2026-07-10
9
2
105.2
2026-07-04
8
1
106.6
2026-06-29
8
0
104.4
2026-06-23
7
1
106.3
2026-06-18
8
0
105.9
2026-06-10
7
0
109.5
2026-06-05
8
1
109.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Parker Messick isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Parker Messick isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
122
12
10%
16
3
19%
18
2
11%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Parker Messick
How many home runs has Parker Messick allowed this season?
Parker Messick has allowed 21 home runs across 27 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Parker Messick?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Parker Messick include Braden Montgomery (1), Byron Buxton (1), Colson Montgomery (1) and 18 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.