14
HRs allowed
8.6%
HR rate (pool)
13.4%
Overall HR/FB
2.84
FIP
3.15
xFIP
-0.31
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
58
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 58th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.4 EV · 382 ft
max EV allowed 114.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Parker Messick.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
34.4%
81.8
31.8°
2
-2.9
Changeup Offspeed
24.0%
81.2
2.1°
0
+0.3
Sinker Hard
17.2%
84.2
12.4°
1
-2.8
Curveball Breaking
11.2%
78.1
20.7°
1
+0.7
Cutter Hard
6.9%
73.9
24.5°
3
+2.0
Slider Breaking
6.3%
79.2
16.3°
3
-0.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups163
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate8.6%
Pool HR/game day0.74
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB13.4% 58
HR/9—
FIP2.84 11
xFIP3.15
FIP − xFIP-0.31 29
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Fastball
Hard · 34.4% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle31.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches621
Changeup
Offspeed · 24.0% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle2.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches433
Sinker
Hard · 17.2% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle12.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches311
Curveball
Breaking · 11.2% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.1 mph
Avg launch angle20.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches203
Cutter
Hard · 6.9% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against73.9 mph
Avg launch angle24.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches125
Slider
Breaking · 6.3% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches114
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Parker Messick.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.4 EV · 382 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
2
105.2
2026-07-04
8
1
106.6
2026-06-29
8
0
104.4
2026-06-23
7
1
106.3
2026-06-18
8
0
105.9
2026-06-10
7
0
109.5
2026-06-05
8
1
109.3
2026-05-30
9
1
108.3
2026-05-24
9
0
105.4
2026-05-19
9
1
105.1
2026-05-13
9
1
107.8
2026-05-08
9
1
110.4
2026-05-03
9
1
103.5
2026-04-27
9
1
114.1
2026-04-21
9
0
105.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Parker Messick isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.