TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.13×

SD @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 3 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

7:15p

+16 ↑

8:15p

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9:15p

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10:15p

+14 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +16

Best of game Ty France conv 38 · vs López ⟷ Matt Olson conv 29 · vs Buehler → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Reynaldo López RHP · ATL

leak 88

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Manny Machado +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 88

1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +330 B ●●●●○

2 Drake Baldwin +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Austin Riley +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 37.8% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France HOT vs López +500 0.250 · 92.1 · 8.9% 40.0% 36.8% F B O C+ 66

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Buehler Edge +330 0.278 · 92.8 · 11.2% 20.0% 37.8% F B O B 73

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Buehler Edge +400 0.204 · 91.6 · 11.8% 20.0% 28.8% F B O C+ 65

· SD Manny Machado vs López +390 0.205 · 90.1 · 8.4% 20.0% 25.5% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Austin Riley vs Buehler +425 0.162 · 90.3 · 9.7% 20.0% 21.9% F B O C 56

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs López Edge +625 0.202 · 88.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs López Edge +500 0.142 · 89.5 · 8.3% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Buehler Edge +700 0.164 · 86.7 · 5.9% 10.0% 11.8% F B O D 49

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs López +750 0.107 · 88.1 · 6.6% 10.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Buehler +850 0.147 · 86.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 43

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Buehler Edge +700 0.117 · 87.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 45

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs López Edge +750 0.083 · 87.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.8% BRK 41.7% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ty France R

11.6% 10.5% 8.0% 10.7% C+ 66 +500

Manny Machado R

12.7% 6.5% 5.6% 10.0% C+ 60 +390

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.0% 4.7% 4.1% 7.7% C 52 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.4% 8.6% 6.6% 9.0% D 49 +500

135

Xander Bogaerts R

8.2% 3.0% 4.3% 6.5% D 43 +750

162

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

6.5% 5.3% 4.3% 5.9% D 40 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads López's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.4% BRK 28.9% OFF 9.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.3% 9.8% 12.1% 14.6% B 73 +330

Neutral · 2

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.2% 21.8% 3.2% 15.2% C+ 65 +400

Austin Riley R

12.5% 12.3% 3.2% 11.3% C 56 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

5.8% 1.1% 3.2% 3.9% D 49 +700

119

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.4% 6.5% 2.8% 5.7% D 45 +700

130

Mauricio Dubon R

3.6% 6.9% 3.8% 4.6% D 43 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Olson Baldwin Riley

Legend

attack side — vs López fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Ty France +500 · 66

Matt Olson +330 · 73

Drake Baldwin +400 · 65

Manny Machado +390 · 60

Austin Riley +425 · 56

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 3 mph out 73°F open

+16

↑

11 mph · out

81°F

7:15p · peak

+16

↑

11 mph · out

79°F

8:15p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

9:15p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

10:15p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 73°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reynaldo López · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 66 C+ +500 HOT 10 0.250 92.1 8.9% 31.0%vs RHP 394 20.5% 40.0% 36.8% 25

2 Manny Machado 60 C+ +390 · 18 0.205 90.1 8.4% 27.8%vs RHP 395 20.2% 20.0% 25.5% 28

3 Gavin Sheets 52 C +625 COOL 62 0.202 88.1 7.2% 32.6%vs RHP 397 11.6% 0.0% 17.2% 22

4 Jackson Merrill 49 D +500 · 88 0.142 89.5 8.3% 13.8%vs RHP 407 11.8% 10.0% 11.9% 33

5 Xander Bogaerts 43 D +750 · 135 0.107 88.1 6.6% 17.8%vs RHP 396 8.7% 10.0% 10.1% 29

6 Jake Cronenworth 40 D +750 · 162 0.083 87.3 6.5% 15.8%vs RHP 389 2.0% 0.0% 9.3% 27

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 73 B +330 COOL 4 0.278 92.8 11.2% 33.9%vs RHP 408 21.2% 20.0% 37.8% 23

2 Drake Baldwin 65 C+ +400 · 12 0.204 91.6 11.8% 25.0%vs RHP 405 19.2% 20.0% 28.8% 33

3 Austin Riley 56 C +425 WARM 35 0.162 90.3 9.7% 14.8%vs RHP 405 9.2% 20.0% 21.9% 25

4 Ozzie Albies 49 D +700 COOL 89 0.164 86.7 5.9% 12.7%vs RHP 383 13.1% 10.0% 11.8% 29

5 Dominic Smith 45 D +700 COOL 119 0.117 87.8 7.2% 13.0%vs RHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 9.5% 15

6 Mauricio Dubon 43 D +850 · 130 0.147 86.3 6.4% 14.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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