TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ COL

Playable air · 1.07×

WSH @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 7 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+26 ↑

6:40p

+24 ↑

7:40p

+21 ↑

8:40p

+18 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +26

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 29 · vs Mikolas ⟷ James Wood conv 44 · vs Lorenzen → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Miles Mikolas RHP · WSH

leak 97

1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +850 B ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro — C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Karros +425 C ●●●●○

FADE Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 92

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 James Wood +198 A ●●●●●

2 Cj Abrams +280 C+ ●●●●●

3 Curtis Mead +390 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Lorenzen Edge +198 0.275 · 95.2 · 13.8% 44.4% 42.9% F B O A 80

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Lorenzen Edge +280 0.234 · 89.9 · 9.3% 33.3% 36.8% F B O C+ 66

· COL Hunter Goodman vs Mikolas +850 0.304 · 91.3 · 12.1% 11.1% 46.3% F B O B 77

· COL Willi Castro vs Mikolas Edge — 0.128 · 88.3 · 7.5% 37.5% 16.1% F B O C 53

· COL Kyle Karros vs Mikolas +425 0.174 · 89.8 · 8.3% 22.2% 24.4% F B O C 58

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Lorenzen +390 0.253 · 88.0 · 9.8% 12.5% 31.6% F B O C+ 67

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Lorenzen Edge +500 0.184 · 89.3 · 6.9% 14.3% 16.1% F B O C 53

· WSH Jacob Young vs Lorenzen — 0.141 · 88.6 · 7.6% 16.7% 12.3% F B O C 50

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Lorenzen Edge +400 0.160 · 88.1 · 8.1% 12.5% 12.4% F B O C 52

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Mikolas Edge +475 0.204 · 84.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 16.1% F B O C 54

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Mikolas Edge +475 0.183 · 83.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· COL Edouard Julien vs Mikolas Edge +525 0.109 · 91.1 · 7.7% 16.7% 16.4% F B O D 49

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Mikolas +475 0.140 · 87.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 49

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Lorenzen Edge — 0.096 · 83.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 41

· COL Tyler Freeman vs Mikolas — 0.074 · 87.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· COL Troy Johnston vs Mikolas Edge +525 0.135 · 89.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 43

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +950 0.045 · 84.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.3% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 19.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

22.8% 24.3% 13.8% 22.2% A 80 +198

Neutral · 5

Curtis Mead R

13.8% 10.2% 3.2% 11.3% C+ 67 +390

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.4% 7.1% 9.5% 9.6% C+ 66 +280

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.2% 1.9% 2.9% 5.3% C 53 +500

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.4% 10.8% 5.2% 7.8% C 52 +400

Jacob Young R

8.1% 4.6% 3.7% 6.6% C 50 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

153

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.1% 5.0% 3.7% 3.7% D 41 —

211

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.4% ← leak BRK 41.9% OFF 7.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

17.7% 16.7% 7.4% 16.2% B 77 +850

Neutral · 4

Kyle Karros R

7.8% 5.2% 15.0% 7.8% C 58 +425

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 1.7% 10.7% 5.6% C 54 +475

Willi Castro S Edge

6.4% 5.4% 6.8% 6.2% C 53 —

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.7% 2.3% 6.1% 5.4% C 51 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Edouard Julien L Edge

6.3% 11.8% 6.5% 7.5% D 49 +525

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.6% 8.7% 4.5% 7.7% D 49 +475

136

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.7% 3.9% 0.0% 2.5% D 43 +525

176

Tyler Freeman R

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.4% usage) carries Mikolas's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Mead Abrams Ruiz Young Goodman Karros Castro Julien

Legend

attack side — vs Mikolas fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

James Wood +198 · 80

Cj Abrams +280 · 66

Kyle Karros +425 · 58

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 7 mph in 78°F open

+26

↑

18 mph · out

98°F

6:40p · peak

+24

↑

16 mph · out

92°F

7:40p

+21

↑

14 mph · out

87°F

8:40p

+18

↑

12 mph · out

83°F

9:40p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

79°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 78°F, wind 7 mph WNW (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 80 A +198 · 1 0.275 95.2 13.8% 38.5%vs RHP 412 29.3% 44.4% 42.9% 22

2 Curtis Mead 67 C+ +390 · 7 0.253 88.0 9.8% 28.6%vs RHP 400 20.7% 12.5% 31.6% 26

3 Cj Abrams 66 C+ +280 WARM 8 0.234 89.9 9.3% 27.0%vs RHP 393 33.3% 33.3% 36.8% 28

4 Keibert Ruiz 53 C +500 · 57 0.184 89.3 6.9% 8.5%vs RHP 377 12.2% 14.3% 16.1% 17

5 Daylen Lile 52 C +400 HOT 65 0.160 88.1 8.1% 11.8%vs RHP 403 9.0% 12.5% 12.4% 22

6 Jacob Young 50 C — WARM 81 0.141 88.6 7.6% 17.5%vs RHP 391 9.0% 16.7% 12.3% 17

7 Jorbit Vivas 41 D — COOL 153 0.096 83.2 5.6% 9.7%vs RHP 392 3.7% 0.0% 9.8% 17

8 Nasim Nunez 31 D +950 COOL 211 0.045 84.6 2.1% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 22

vs Miles Mikolas · RHP 1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 77 B +850 WARM 2 0.304 91.3 12.1% 40.4%vs RHP 412 25.0% 11.1% 46.3% 16

2 Kyle Karros 58 C +425 WARM 23 0.174 89.8 8.3% 25.0%vs RHP 417 11.5% 22.2% 24.4% 28

3 Jake Mccarthy 54 C +475 COOL 45 0.204 84.9 7.0% 18.2%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 16.1% 31

4 Willi Castro 53 C — WARM 58 0.128 88.3 7.5% 11.8%vs RHP 417 9.3% 37.5% 16.1% 17

5 Tj Rumfield 51 C +475 COOL 66 0.183 83.9 6.8% 18.2%vs RHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 14.5% 27

6 Edouard Julien 49 D +525 WARM 84 0.109 91.1 7.7% 13.3%vs RHP 400 3.8% 16.7% 16.4% 11

7 Ezequiel Tovar 49 D +475 COOL 87 0.140 87.2 7.5% 16.4%vs RHP 410 7.8% 0.0% 12.3% 24

8 Troy Johnston 43 D +525 WARM 136 0.135 89.7 4.2% 7.9%vs RHP 415 1.3% 0.0% 9.2% 16

9 Tyler Freeman 38 D — WARM 176 0.074 87.8 3.6% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.2% 0.0% 9.5% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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