14
HRs allowed
9.2%
HR rate (pool)
19.7%
Overall HR/FB
3.65
FIP
3.36
xFIP
+0.30
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.5 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 113.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chase Burns.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
57.1%
84.5
31.0°
7
-0.7
Slider Breaking
37.1%
83.2
11.4°
3
-2.0
Changeup Offspeed
5.6%
77.2
18.8°
3
+9.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups153
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate9.2%
Pool HR/game day0.78
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB19.7% 87
HR/9—
FIP3.65 34
xFIP3.36
FIP − xFIP+0.30 65
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 57.1% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle31.0°
HRs allowed7
Pitches997
Slider
Breaking · 37.1% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle11.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches648
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.6% usage
+9.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.2 mph
Avg launch angle18.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches98
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chase Burns.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.5 EV · 389 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
7
1
109.8
2026-07-02
9
1
103.8
2026-06-27
9
1
107.8
2026-06-21
8
1
105.1
2026-06-15
7
0
105.4
2026-06-09
5
0
104.7
2026-06-03
9
2
104.0
2026-05-26
9
1
104.8
2026-05-19
9
1
108.8
2026-05-14
9
0
102.6
2026-05-09
9
0
109.7
2026-05-03
9
0
108.2
2026-04-28
9
1
107.1
2026-04-21
9
1
113.1
2026-04-16
9
0
109.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chase Burns isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.