18
HRs allowed
8.2%
HR rate (pool)
19.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.55
FIP
3.4
xFIP
+0.16
FIP − xFIP gap
#22
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.4 EV · 390 ft
max EV allowed 113.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 56.2%
BRK 38.4%
OFF 5.2%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 5
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (56.2% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
56.2%
84.5
29.0°
8
-0.6
Slider Breaking
38.4%
83.8
10.0°
4
-1.7
Changeup Offspeed
5.2%
77.1
17.6°
3
+7.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups220
HRs allowed (pool)18
Pool HR rate8.2%
Pool HR/game day0.69
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB19.1% 84
HR/9—
FIP3.55 30
xFIP3.4
FIP − xFIP+0.16 58
Barrel% allowed16.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 56.2% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle29.0°
HRs allowed8
Pitches1329
Slider
Breaking · 38.4% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle10.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches908
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.2% usage
+7.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.1 mph
Avg launch angle17.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches124
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
18 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.4 EV · 390 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-24
5
1
108.9
2026-08-19
9
1
103.5
2026-08-14
9
0
106.0
2026-08-08
8
0
102.9
2026-08-02
9
0
105.9
2026-07-28
9
1
104.6
2026-07-27
9
0
—
2026-07-21
9
1
110.2
2026-07-08
7
1
109.8
2026-07-02
9
1
103.8
2026-06-27
9
1
107.8
2026-06-21
8
1
105.1
2026-06-15
7
0
105.4
2026-06-09
5
0
104.7
2026-06-03
9
2
104.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Wrigley Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.114
Wind
9 mph from WSW
Temp
79°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:20p
9
79°
+13
7:20p
7
79°
+11
8:20p
5
79°
+9
9:20p
3
79°
+5
10:20p
2
80°
+4
+8
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 4 mph from SSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
355ft
deep
CF
400ft
avg
RF
353ft
deep
vs LHH → RF ▲ leans
355ft
8 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
356ft
4 HRs allowed
Shortest: LF 351 ft
HRs allowed avg 390 ft · n=18
Longest LF/RF lines; wind-dependent
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
122
9
7%
18
1
6%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Chase Burns
Is Chase Burns likely to give up a home run tonight?
Chase Burns pitches tonight (CIN @ CHC at Wrigley Field). This season he has allowed 18 home runs across 26 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Chase Burns allowed this season?
Chase Burns has allowed 18 home runs across 26 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Chase Burns?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Chase Burns include Ben Rice (2), Adolis Garcia (1), Brandon Lowe (1) and 19 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.