10
HRs allowed
11.5%
HR rate (pool)
12.8%
Overall HR/FB
3.6
FIP
3.79
xFIP
-0.19
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
51
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 51th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 114.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against David Peterson.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
29.1%
87.6
10.4°
5
+0.7
Slider Breaking
24.2%
82.8
9.7°
1
-1.5
Fastball Hard
23.0%
80.6
22.1°
1
+2.1
Changeup Offspeed
12.2%
79.7
8.8°
0
+2.1
Curveball Breaking
11.6%
76.4
4.3°
2
+3.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups87
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate11.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB12.8% 51
HR/9—
FIP3.6 32
xFIP3.79
FIP − xFIP-0.19 36
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 29.1% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.6 mph
Avg launch angle10.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches416
Slider
Breaking · 24.2% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle9.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches345
Fastball
Hard · 23.0% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle22.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches328
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.2% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle8.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches174
Curveball
Breaking · 11.6% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.4 mph
Avg launch angle4.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches165
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against David Peterson.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 396 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
9
1
107.3
2026-07-03
9
2
111.5
2026-06-27
8
1
108.0
2026-06-21
8
2
108.1
2026-05-26
9
0
108.7
2026-05-21
9
0
111.7
2026-04-29
9
2
114.6
2026-04-13
8
1
109.2
2026-04-02
9
1
111.3
2026-03-28
9
0
107.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — David Peterson isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.