16
HRs allowed
11.0%
HR rate (pool)
17.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.05
FIP
3.93
xFIP
+0.12
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
81
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 81th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.9 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 114.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Kyle Bradish.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
33.4%
84.5
18.1°
2
-1.0
Slider Breaking
26.8%
80.4
8.5°
7
+0.6
Curveball Breaking
21.9%
87.2
2.8°
2
-0.4
Fastball Hard
18.0%
82.0
18.9°
1
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups145
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate11.0%
Pool HR/game day0.94
Top-15 matchups20
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB17.0% 81
HR/9—
FIP4.05 50
xFIP3.93
FIP − xFIP+0.12 55
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 33.4% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle18.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches617
Slider
Breaking · 26.8% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle8.5°
HRs allowed7
Pitches495
Curveball
Breaking · 21.9% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.2 mph
Avg launch angle2.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches405
Fastball
Hard · 18.0% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle18.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches333
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Kyle Bradish.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.9 EV · 391 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
0
107.4
2026-07-05
9
1
106.5
2026-06-28
8
0
108.9
2026-06-22
9
1
106.0
2026-06-17
7
2
107.2
2026-06-11
8
3
109.4
2026-06-06
8
1
103.1
2026-05-31
9
0
107.5
2026-05-25
9
2
107.3
2026-05-19
9
1
113.7
2026-05-13
9
0
106.5
2026-05-08
9
0
112.7
2026-05-02
9
2
105.8
2026-04-26
9
1
110.7
2026-04-20
9
1
114.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Kyle Bradish isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.