12
HRs allowed
8.3%
HR rate (pool)
15.3%
Overall HR/FB
5.21
FIP
5.22
xFIP
-0.01
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
71
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 71th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 393 ft
max EV allowed 111.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Bubba Chandler.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
47.9%
83.3
32.8°
5
+0.0
Slider Breaking
18.7%
83.1
5.7°
3
+1.2
Changeup Offspeed
16.8%
82.6
7.1°
1
-0.7
Sinker Hard
7.0%
83.3
13.4°
0
-1.4
Sweeper Breaking
6.2%
81.0
22.3°
0
-0.1
Curveball Breaking
3.4%
92.3
23.5°
1
+2.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups145
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate8.3%
Pool HR/game day0.71
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB15.3% 71
HR/9—
FIP5.21 85
xFIP5.22
FIP − xFIP-0.01 46
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 47.9% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle32.8°
HRs allowed5
Pitches775
Slider
Breaking · 18.7% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle5.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches303
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.8% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle7.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches272
Sinker
Hard · 7.0% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle13.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches113
Sweeper
Breaking · 6.2% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.0 mph
Avg launch angle22.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches100
Curveball
Breaking · 3.4% usage
+2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against92.3 mph
Avg launch angle23.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches55
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Bubba Chandler.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 393 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
1
111.8
2026-07-05
8
1
106.7
2026-06-30
7
1
110.4
2026-06-25
8
0
105.1
2026-06-19
8
1
105.7
2026-06-13
7
0
102.8
2026-06-02
9
1
107.1
2026-05-27
9
1
108.9
2026-05-22
9
0
106.5
2026-05-16
9
1
111.3
2026-05-10
9
1
110.3
2026-05-05
9
0
109.4
2026-04-29
9
1
108.4
2026-04-23
9
2
106.0
2026-04-17
9
0
106.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Bubba Chandler isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.