2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 James Wood 7 HRs · 2 Ben Rice 5 HRs · 3 Jordan Walker 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 6 Yordan Alvarez 4 HRs · 7 Kyle Karros 4 HRs · 8 Juan Soto 4 HRs · 9 Jake Bauers 4 HRs · 10 Chase DeLauter 4 HRs · 11 Samuel Basallo 4 HRs · 12 Brayan Rocchio 3 HRs 1 James Wood 7 HRs · 2 Ben Rice 5 HRs · 3 Jordan Walker 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 6 Yordan Alvarez 4 HRs · 7 Kyle Karros 4 HRs · 8 Juan Soto 4 HRs · 9 Jake Bauers 4 HRs · 10 Chase DeLauter 4 HRs · 11 Samuel Basallo 4 HRs · 12 Brayan Rocchio 3 HRs
Luinder Avila

Luinder Avila

RHP KC
75 matchups scored · 9 game days
8
HRs allowed
10.7%
HR rate (pool)
9.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.44
FIP
4.76
xFIP
-0.32
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter STINGY
LEAKY 19
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
19
no model flags today
Vulnerability 19th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
65.3%
65.3%
Fly-ball rate
avg HR 104.8 EV · 404 ft max EV allowed 109.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
2026-06-01 · 1 HR 2026-06-12 · 3 HR 2026-06-23 · 1 HR 2026-06-28 · 1 HR 2026-07-10 · 2 HR
7D · 2 HR 15D · 3 HR 30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Not on today's slate — matchup context appears when he's next listed.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Luinder Avila.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard 26.7% 83.5 21.0° 1 +0.5
Sinker Hard 26.0% 85.4 7.2° 0 -0.0
Slider Breaking 21.8% 78.4 13.6° 3 +0.9
Curveball Breaking 15.3% 83.6 13.8° 2 +1.2
Changeup Offspeed 10.2% 84.5 3.3° 0 +1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups75
HRs allowed (pool)8
Pool HR rate10.7%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB9.2% 19
HR/9
FIP4.44 65
xFIP4.76
FIP − xFIP-0.32 28
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed65.3%
FB%
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
IP
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 26.7% usage
+0.5 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle21.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches282
Sinker
Hard · 26.0% usage
-0.0 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle7.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches275
Slider
Breaking · 21.8% usage
+0.9 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches230
Curveball
Breaking · 15.3% usage
+1.2 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches162
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.2% usage
+1.0 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle3.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches108
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Luinder Avila.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
8 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.8 EV · 404 ft 7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
2026-07-10 Samuel Basallo #27 58 Camden Yards 105.9 24.0° 373
2026-07-10 Blaze Alexander #131 42 Camden Yards 104.7 26.0° 436
2026-06-28 Miguel Vargas #46 53 Rate Field 105.1 29.0° 407
2026-06-23 Junior Caminero #62 55 Tropicana Field 108.5 38.0° 416
2026-06-12 Yordan Álvarez #36 62 Kauffman Stadium 108.7 31.0° 419
2026-06-12 Christian Walker #76 52 Kauffman Stadium 99.7 40.0° 370
2026-06-12 Brice Matthews #214 24 Kauffman Stadium 107.5 34.0° 433
2026-06-01 JJ Bleday #2 77 Great American Ball Park 98.3 34.0° 380
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10 Camden Yards 9 2 105.9
2026-07-05 Kauffman Stadium 8 0 108.1
2026-06-28 Rate Field 7 1 107.8
2026-06-23 Tropicana Field 9 1 109.3
2026-06-17 Nationals Park 8 0 104.6
2026-06-12 Kauffman Stadium 8 3 108.7
2026-06-06 Target Field 8 0 106.2
2026-06-01 Great American Ball Park 9 1 102.2
2026-04-04 Kauffman Stadium 9 0 106.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Luinder Avila isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.
Six home runs to freedom

Luinder Avila's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see the Threat Matrix, vulnerability signals, arsenal damage, BvP history, HR log, and ballpark conditions.

75 more waiting in the on-deck circle
THR 3.3.96 · build 601

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.

Yesterday's picks graded in full — hits and misses — plus tonight's ranked board, free in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.