Results · 2026-07-20

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Results · 2026-07-20

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#12 Spencer Torkelson vs Jameson Taillon FIP 6.49 HR/FB 25.7% #15 Dillon Dingler vs Jameson Taillon FIP 6.49 HR/FB 25.7%

📦 STACK Kyle Freeland FIP 4.73 HR/FB 9.1% → #1 James Wood, #7 Curtis Mead, #11 Cj Abrams

📦 STACK Tanner Bibee FIP 4.99 HR/FB 16.7% → #8 Byron Buxton, #14 Kody Clemens

📦 STACK Jameson Taillon FIP 6.49 HR/FB 25.7% → #12 Spencer Torkelson, #15 Dillon Dingler

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-19. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.9% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	James Wood (L) ³	82	-6.9	Kyle Freeland (LHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟢 A	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%15.4% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.41 FIP4.83 IP893.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-37 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96.4°F Wind8.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-37 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note96°F, wind 8 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +4	?
2	Kyle Schwarber (L) ²	78	+8.9	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	7:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%13.4% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.05 FIP3.76 IP840.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+20 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.5°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+20 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1	?
3	Esmerlyn Valdez (R) ³	77	+6.0	Ryan Weathers (LHP) PIT @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%16.3% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.79 IP887.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind4 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 4 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1	?
4	Matt Olson (L) ³	72	·	JP Sears (LHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.19 FIP4.36 IP883.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91.7°F Wind5.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note92°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3	?
5	Curtis Mead (R) ⁴	72	-2.8	Kyle Freeland (LHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV88.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.41 FIP4.83 IP893.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-27 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96.4°F Wind8.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-27 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note96°F, wind 8 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +4	?
6	Ben Rice (L) ³	71	+4.4	Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) PIT @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.0×	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.09 FIP4.10 IP902.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+58 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind4 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+58 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 4 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1	?
7	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁵	70	-5.4	Janson Junk (RHP) MIA @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.97 FIP3.96 IP915.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-21 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93.1°F Wind4 mph W Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-21 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 4 mph W (in) — modifier: +3	?
8	Byron Buxton ⁴	69	·	Tanner Bibee (RHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	?HH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	— Form · — SignalUNKNOWN Batted Balls0 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4.0×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.19 FIP4.02 IP902.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-25 Weather · Progressive Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.8°F Wind2.0 mph NNE Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1	?
9	Shohei Ohtani (L) ²	68	+3.4	Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.25 FIP3.87 IP886.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+21 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.5°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+21 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1	?
10	Hunter Goodman (R) ³	67	-10.9	Andrew Alvarez (LHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.43 FIP4.71 IP881.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-24 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96.4°F Wind8.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-24 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note96°F, wind 8 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +4	?
11	Spencer Torkelson (R) ²	65	-7.5	Jameson Taillon (RHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%13.9% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.80 IP869.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+37 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.5°F Wind9.7 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 10 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1	?
12	Jake Bauers (L) ²	64	+4.2	Freddy Peralta (RHP) NYM @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.13 FIP4.13 IP905.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-16 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78.3°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 6 mph W (in) — modifier: +1	?
13	Kody Clemens (L) ³	64	·	Tanner Bibee (RHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.19 FIP4.02 IP902.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-26 Weather · Progressive Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.8°F Wind2.0 mph NNE Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-26 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1	?
14	Dillon Dingler (R) ⁵	64	-7.3	Jameson Taillon (RHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.8×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.80 IP869.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+33 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.5°F Wind9.7 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 10 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1	?
15	Drake Baldwin (L) ³	64	·	JP Sears (LHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.19 FIP4.36 IP883.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91.7°F Wind5.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note92°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3	?
16	Griffin Conine (L)	66	+0.6	HOU Bullpen Proxy MIA @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	7	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%16.1% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	HOU Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.1% HR/91.42 FIP4.92 IP892.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-19 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93.1°F Wind4 mph W Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 4 mph W (in) — modifier: +3	?
17	Ty France (R) ⁴	62	+5.4	Bryce Elder (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.12 FIP4.11 IP873.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+14 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91.7°F Wind5.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note92°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3	?
18	Willson Contreras (R) ³	62	·	Shane Baz (RHP) BAL @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.09 IP877.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+23 Weather · Fenway Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.1°F Wind3 mph WSW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 3 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +1	?
19	Jordan Walker (R) ⁴	62	-5.9	José Soriano (RHP) STL @ LAA · Angel Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.12 FIP4.42 IP894.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-47 Weather · Angel Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.3°F Wind1.0 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-47 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 1 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1	?
20	Cj Abrams (L) ³	61	-5.3	Kyle Freeland (LHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.41 FIP4.83 IP893.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-44 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96.4°F Wind8.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-44 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note96°F, wind 8 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +4	?
21	Bryce Harper (L) ³	61	·	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.8×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.05 FIP3.76 IP840.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.5°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1	?
22	Mike Trout (R) ³	59	-11.1	Kyle Leahy (RHP) STL @ LAA · Angel Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%14.3% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.8×	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.03 FIP4.19 IP877.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-47 Weather · Angel Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.3°F Wind1.0 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-47 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 1 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1	?
23	Junior Caminero (R) ³	59	+4.0	Dylan Cease (RHP) TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.15 FIP4.07 IP891.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant	?
24	Kazuma Okamoto (R) ²	59	+5.5	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.5×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.25 FIP4.15 IP842.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant	?
25	Juan Soto (L)	58	-4.8	Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) NYM @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%7.6% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.99 FIP3.60 IP885.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-17 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78.3°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 6 mph W (in) — modifier: +1	?
26	Shea Langeliers (R)	58	-9.5	Mitch Bratt (LHP) ATH @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.28 FIP4.53 IP876.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-6 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp98.9°F Wind1.0 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-6 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note99°F, wind 1 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3	?
27	Joc Pederson (L) ⁴	58	-7.0	Erick Fedde (RHP) CWS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.09 FIP4.30 IP869.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+11 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp96.6°F Wind4 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note97°F, wind 4 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +3	?
28	Munetaka Murakami (L) ³	58	-7.0	Jacob deGrom (RHP) CWS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.7×	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.27 FIP4.18 IP871.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+10 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp96.6°F Wind4 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note97°F, wind 4 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +3	?
29	Brandon Lowe (L) ²	58	+3.7	Ryan Weathers (LHP) PIT @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.79 IP887.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+57 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind4 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+57 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 4 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1	?
30	Riley Greene (L) ⁵	58	-8.0	Jameson Taillon (RHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%13.7% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.80 IP869.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+15 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.5°F Wind9.7 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 10 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1	?

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.1%

▼ -3.9 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 19.2% prior 15d

Results · 2026-07-20

scoring

⏳

Results scoring in progress

Catch-rate and HR totals for 2026-07-20 update once the night's games finish and the model collects results. Usually live by mid-morning.

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.7%

B 19.7%

C+ 16.7%

C 13.6%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Results · 2026-07-20

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.