Andrew Alvarez
LHP
WSH
4
HRs Allowed
12.9%
HR Rate (Pool)
19.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.1
FIP
2.81
xFIP
+0.29
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
19.1%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
87th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
71.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.1
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
19th pctile
2.81
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.29
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
65th pctile
12.9%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
31
Pool Matchups
4
HRs Allowed (Pool)
0
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
12.9%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 13.3% | 1.0 | 97.6mph | 104.7mph | 25.5° | 416ft | Flat +0.4pp |
| Last 15 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 13.6% | 1.0 | 98.0mph | 104.9mph | 28.7° | 412ft | Flat +0.7pp |
| Last 30 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 12.9% | 1.0 | 98.1mph | 105.6mph | 28.2° | 400ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
98.1
Avg Max EV
109.4
Max EV Allowed
22
Hard-Hit Proxy · 71.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
105.6
Avg HR EV
28.2°
Avg HR Launch
400
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Ryan Vilade | 106.8mph | 106.8mph | 26° | 436ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | Yandy Díaz | 104.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Jonny DeLuca | 102.6mph | 102.6mph | 25° | 396ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-15 | Jac Caglianone | 109.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Lane Thomas | 104.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Carter Jensen | 104.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Nick Loftin | 103.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Isaac Collins | 102.6mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Jonny DeLuca | #141 | 41 | Tropicana Field | 102.6mph | 25.0° | 396ft |
| 2026-06-21 | Ryan Vilade | #184 | 34 | Tropicana Field | 106.8mph | 26.0° | 436ft |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryce Eldridge | #149 | 39 | Oracle Park | 105.3mph | 35.0° | 405ft |
| 2026-06-03 | Esteury Ruiz | #102 | 46 | Nationals Park | 107.8mph | 27.0° | 365ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 163 | 29.3% | -1.3 | 81.8 | -8.2° | 0 |
| Slider | 154 | 27.7% | +1.3 | 79.4 | 9.7° | 1 |
| Fastball | 145 | 26.1% | +1.3 | 83.5 | 8.5° | 1 |
| Sinker | 83 | 14.9% | -1.3 | 91.0 | -3.0° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
71.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Chandler Simpson | #236 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Taylor Walls | #230 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Fortes | #226 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ben Williamson | #213 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ryan Vilade | #184 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Jonny DeLuca | #141 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Yandy Díaz | #116 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Jonathan Aranda | #98 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Junior Caminero | #81 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Isaac Collins | #143 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Nick Loftin | #111 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Starling Marte | #104 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Lane Thomas | #88 | 44 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Carter Jensen | #79 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Jac Caglianone | #63 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Daniel Susac | #229 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Jung Hoo Lee | #197 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Matt Chapman | #184 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryce Eldridge | #149 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-09 | Rafael Devers | #133 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Willy Adames | #84 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Casey Schmitt | #54 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Christopher Morel | #250 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Javier Sanoja | #246 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Joe Mack | #219 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Xavier Edwards | #158 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Otto Lopez | #154 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Connor Norby | #153 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Esteury Ruiz | #102 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Heriberto Hernández | #99 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Kyle Stowers | #98 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |