7
HRs allowed
10.6%
HR rate (pool)
15.7%
Overall HR/FB
2.99
FIP
2.93
xFIP
+0.05
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
73
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 73th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 113.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Andrew Alvarez.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Curveball Breaking
29.3%
83.0
-0.3°
0
-0.5
Fastball Hard
28.1%
82.9
17.4°
1
+0.3
Slider Breaking
24.7%
82.5
11.9°
1
+0.7
Sinker Hard
14.7%
89.7
0.0°
0
-1.2
Changeup Offspeed
3.3%
72.3
-0.9°
0
+1.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups66
HRs allowed (pool)7
Pool HR rate10.6%
Pool HR/game day0.88
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB15.7% 73
HR/9—
FIP2.99 13
xFIP2.93
FIP − xFIP+0.05 49
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Curveball
Breaking · 29.3% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle-0.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches319
Fastball
Hard · 28.1% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle17.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches306
Slider
Breaking · 24.7% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches269
Sinker
Hard · 14.7% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against89.7 mph
Avg launch angle0.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches160
Changeup
Offspeed · 3.3% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.3 mph
Avg launch angle-0.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches36
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Andrew Alvarez.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
7 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 404 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-03
8
2
112.6
2026-07-20
9
0
109.1
2026-07-07
9
1
105.0
2026-06-26
9
0
113.0
2026-06-21
9
2
106.8
2026-06-15
6
0
109.4
2026-06-09
7
1
107.3
2026-06-03
9
1
108.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Andrew Alvarez isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Andrew Alvarez isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
24
2
8%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
7
1
14%
9
0
0%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.