TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.68×

WSH @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind 8 mph slight_out 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

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best window is early — 6:40p at +1

Best of game Willi Castro conv 26 · vs Alvarez ⟷ James Wood conv 46 · vs Freeland → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 26

0.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willi Castro +525 D ●●●●○

2 Hunter Goodman +260 C+ ●●●●○

3 Kyle Karros +625 C ●●●○○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 18

1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · stingy — thin edge

1 James Wood +245 A ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +370 B ●●●●●

3 Cj Abrams +390 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 55.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Freeland +245 0.278 · 95.2 · 15.4% 55.6% 36.0% F B O A 82

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Freeland Edge +370 0.256 · 88.0 · 10.9% 25.0% 36.1% F B O B 72

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Alvarez Edge +260 0.283 · 91.3 · 10.2% 11.1% 36.2% F B O C+ 67

· COL Kyle Karros vs Alvarez Edge +625 0.176 · 89.8 · 7.0% 22.2% 14.9% F B O C 50

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Freeland +390 0.225 · 89.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 25.0% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Alvarez Edge +525 0.120 · 88.3 · 6.3% 37.5% 14.3% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Alvarez Edge +525 0.140 · 87.2 · 6.3% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 43

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Alvarez Edge +575 0.241 · 85.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 48

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Alvarez +950 0.207 · 84.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 44

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Alvarez +750 0.185 · 83.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 42

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Freeland Edge +625 0.143 · 88.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 49

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Freeland Edge +850 0.046 · 84.6 · 2.3% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 31

· COL Braxton Fulford vs Alvarez Edge +525 0.117 · 86.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· COL Tyler Freeman vs Alvarez Edge +950 0.076 · 87.8 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.0% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 15.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

James Wood L

22.8% 24.3% 13.8% 22.2% A 82 +245

Curtis Mead R Edge

13.8% 10.2% 3.2% 11.3% B 72 +370

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L

11.4% 7.1% 9.5% 9.6% C+ 61 +390

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R Edge

8.3% 4.7% 3.7% 6.7% D 49 +625

215

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 54.1% ← leak FB 43.1% OFF 2.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R Edge

16.7% 17.7% 7.4% 16.2% C+ 67 +260

Kyle Karros R Edge

5.2% 7.8% 15.0% 7.8% C 50 +625

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Cole Carrigg S Edge

6.7% 5.8% 12.5% 7.2% D 48 +575

106

Willi Castro S Edge

5.4% 6.4% 6.8% 6.2% D 45 +525

111

Jake Mccarthy L

1.7% 6.2% 10.7% 5.6% D 44 +950

130

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

8.7% 7.6% 4.5% 7.7% D 43 +525

133

Tj Rumfield L

2.3% 6.7% 6.1% 5.4% D 42 +750

143

Braxton Fulford R Edge

0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 8.8% D 42 +525

210

Tyler Freeman R Edge

0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 1.5% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the breaking family (54.1% usage) carries Alvarez's damage — BRK is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Mead Goodman Karros Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Alvarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

James Wood +245 · 82

Curtis Mead +370 · 72

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.20× Wind 8 mph slight_out 96°F open

↑

7 mph · in

87°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · in

87°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · in

87°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · in

86°F

9:40p

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8 mph · in

86°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.68× 96°F, wind 8 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +4. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 82 A +245 · 1 0.278 95.2 15.4% 40.0%vs LHP 412 29.6% 55.6% 36.0% 20

2 Curtis Mead 72 B +370 WARM 5 0.256 88.0 10.9% 21.9%vs LHP 400 21.1% 25.0% 36.1% 26

3 Cj Abrams 61 C+ +390 WARM 20 0.225 89.9 10.3% 13.6%vs LHP 393 20.0% 0.0% 25.0% 29

4 Jacob Young 49 D +625 COOL 82 0.143 88.6 8.5% 5.0%vs LHP 391 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% 17

5 Nasim Nunez 31 D +850 COOL 215 0.046 84.6 2.3% 8.3%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 21

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 67 C+ +260 COOL 10 0.283 91.3 10.2% 38.9%vs LHP 412 25.3% 11.1% 36.2% 16

2 Kyle Karros 50 C +625 · 73 0.176 89.8 7.0% 5.6%vs LHP 417 11.7% 22.2% 14.9% 28

3 Cole Carrigg 48 D +575 · 86 0.241 85.7 6.5% 14.3%vs LHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 22

4 Willi Castro 45 D +525 WARM 106 0.120 88.3 6.3% 11.1%vs LHP 417 9.5% 37.5% 14.3% 17

5 Jake Mccarthy 44 D +950 COOL 111 0.207 84.9 5.9% 20.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 31

6 Ezequiel Tovar 43 D +525 COOL 130 0.140 87.2 6.3% 4.0%vs LHP 410 7.9% 11.1% 8.0% 25

7 Tj Rumfield 42 D +750 COOL 133 0.185 83.9 5.7% 9.1%vs LHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 29

8 Braxton Fulford 42 D +525 WARM 143 0.117 86.5 7.5% 0.0%vs LHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 5

9 Tyler Freeman 32 D +950 WARM 210 0.076 87.8 3.0% 12.5%vs LHP 369 2.2% 0.0% 8.6% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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