TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.25×

LAD @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 5 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+8 ↑

10:10p

+8 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 37 · vs Sheehan ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 35 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Emmet Sheehan RHP · LAD

leak 93

1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +750 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Harper — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 6

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +625 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tommy Edman — D ●●●○○

3 Andy Pages +800 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Sheehan Edge +750 0.312 · 93.5 · 13.4% 30.0% 43.2% F B O B 78

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Sánchez +625 0.253 · 93.4 · 12.2% 40.0% 30.5% F B O C+ 68

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Sánchez Edge +800 0.194 · 89.0 · 8.6% 10.0% 14.9% F B O C 51

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Sheehan Edge — 0.232 · 90.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 22.8% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Sheehan Edge +850 0.181 · 89.6 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 53

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Sánchez +950 0.215 · 89.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 50

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Sánchez — 0.192 · 90.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.143 · 90.3 · 9.2% 33.3% 11.5% F B O D 46

· PHI Trea Turner vs Sheehan — 0.129 · 88.7 · 7.7% 22.2% 14.3% F B O D 49

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Sheehan — 0.134 · 90.3 · 7.1% 10.0% 10.2% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.163 · 90.0 · 9.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 44

· LAD Alex Call COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.075 · 83.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 35

· LAD Miguel Rojas COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.151 · 87.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Sánchez Edge +1000 0.173 · 90.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 46

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Sheehan Edge +850 0.146 · 89.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 47

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Sheehan Edge — 0.094 · 86.7 · 2.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.6% ← leak OFF 38.8% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Shohei Ohtani L

21.6% 14.9% 12.0% 17.6% C+ 68 +625

Andy Pages R Edge

8.2% 6.9% 9.0% 8.3% C 51 +800

Freddie Freeman L

10.5% 10.2% 9.9% 10.3% C 51 —

Dalton Rushing L

11.7% 3.1% 17.9% 11.5% C 50 +950

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

101

Tommy Edman S Edge

3.8% 12.5% 7.1% 7.1% D 46 —

102

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.3% 6.7% 3.8% 8.2% D 46 +1000

113

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

10.6% 9.1% 14.7% 11.2% D 44 —

126

Miguel Rojas R Edge

8.9% 0.0% 6.7% 7.3% D 43 —

193

Alex Call R Edge

1.5% 0.0% 4.8% 2.0% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.8% ← leak BRK 41.0% OFF 16.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

20.0% 15.9% 26.9% 19.5% B 78 +750

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

8.8% 16.0% 8.6% 11.2% C+ 61 —

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.3% 14.9% 2.7% 9.4% C 53 +850

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Trea Turner R

8.7% 4.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 49 —

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.2% 5.1% 6.1% 6.9% D 47 +850

Alec Bohm R

4.7% 5.2% 6.7% 5.0% D 47 —

196

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.8% usage) carries Sheehan's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Edman Schwarber Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Sheehan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber +750 · 78

Shohei Ohtani +625 · 68

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 5 mph out 84°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

7:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

8:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 83°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 68 C+ +625 WARM 9 0.253 93.4 12.2% 33.3%vs LHP 405 20.0% 40.0% 30.5% 28

2 Andy Pages 51 C +800 COOL 65 0.194 89.0 8.6% 16.7%vs LHP 391 14.4% 10.0% 14.9% 21

3 Freddie Freeman 51 C — COOL 66 0.192 90.5 9.5% 15.4%vs LHP 398 13.5% 0.0% 11.6% 26

4 Dalton Rushing 50 C +950 COOL 76 0.215 89.0 10.0% 11.1%vs LHP 396 5.3% 0.0% 12.2% 13

5 Tommy Edman 46 D — COOL 101 0.143 90.3 9.2% 20.0%vs LHP 408 7.1% 33.3% 11.5% 23

6 Mookie Betts 46 D +1000 COOL 102 0.173 90.4 8.2% 6.7%vs LHP 385 10.3% 0.0% 11.4% 24

7 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D — COOL 113 0.163 90.0 9.3% 15.4%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 19

8 Miguel Rojas 43 D — COOL 126 0.151 87.3 7.8% 20.0%vs LHP 397 9.1% 0.0% 12.1% 10

9 Alex Call 35 D — COOL 193 0.075 83.6 4.4% 14.3%vs LHP 368 14.3% 0.0% 12.2% 4

vs Emmet Sheehan · RHP 1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 78 B +750 · 2 0.312 93.5 13.4% 43.8%vs RHP 403 26.1% 30.0% 43.2% 21

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ — COOL 21 0.232 90.1 10.2% 36.2%vs RHP 400 18.9% 0.0% 22.8% 24

3 Brandon Marsh 53 C +850 COOL 53 0.181 89.6 9.2% 24.0%vs RHP 392 13.2% 0.0% 15.8% 22

4 Trea Turner 49 D — · 80 0.129 88.7 7.7% 18.2%vs RHP 394 12.9% 22.2% 14.3% 28

5 Bryson Stott 47 D +850 COOL 92 0.146 89.0 8.1% 8.8%vs RHP 393 7.8% 0.0% 10.4% 28

6 Alec Bohm 47 D — HOT 93 0.134 90.3 7.1% 19.4%vs RHP 394 12.0% 10.0% 10.2% 30

7 Justin Crawford 35 D — COOL 196 0.094 86.7 2.9% 5.9%vs RHP 382 2.9% 0.0% 8.9% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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