TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.12×

BAL @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 3 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game Masataka Yoshida conv 36 · vs Baz ⟷ Tyler O'Neill conv 32 · vs Tolle → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 38

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●●●●

2 Willson Contreras — C+ ●●●●●

3 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●●●○

FADE Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 11

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler O'Neill — D ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●●

3 Pete Alonso — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ HOT vs Baz — 0.251 · 90.6 · 10.5% 40.0% 31.1% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Tolle Edge — 0.192 · 92.3 · 9.0% 40.0% 24.0% F B O C 52

· BOS Wilyer Abreu HOT vs Baz Edge — 0.196 · 90.2 · 9.9% 40.0% 18.4% F B O C 54

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.216 · 93.7 · 9.5% 22.2% 20.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Baz Edge — 0.142 · 88.6 · 4.7% 60.0% 12.8% F B O D 42

· BAL Tyler O'Neill HOT vs Tolle Edge — 0.154 · 89.8 · 8.2% 50.0% 14.6% F B O D 44

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Tolle Edge — 0.133 · 87.2 · 5.8% 25.0% 11.5% F B O D 37

· BAL Taylor Ward COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.109 · 89.3 · 6.4% 22.2% 12.9% F B O D 37

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Tolle — 0.181 · 89.5 · 7.2% 11.1% 15.7% F B O D 46

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Baz — 0.152 · 84.9 · 4.5% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Baz — 0.164 · 86.1 · 6.0% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· BAL Jeremiah Jackson vs Tolle Edge — 0.161 · 89.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 41

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Baz Edge — 0.146 · 89.5 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 43

· BOS Anthony Seigler vs Baz Edge — 0.151 · 88.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 38

· BOS Connor Wong COOL vs Baz — 0.100 · 85.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 34

· BOS Tsung-Che Cheng COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.030 · 86.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 88.5% ← leak BRK 8.2% OFF 3.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.6% 7.4% 15.6% 13.2% C 55 —

Coby Mayo R Edge

10.5% 11.3% 10.5% 10.8% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L

7.9% 6.4% 7.6% 7.4% D 46 —

115

Tyler O'Neill R Edge

11.1% 13.0% 0.0% 9.9% D 44 —

146

Jeremiah Jackson R Edge

10.4% 7.1% 4.2% 8.2% D 41 —

174

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.3% 1.4% 2.9% 5.8% D 37 —

175

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.5% 9.3% 0.0% 5.1% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (88.5% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.9% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 16.0% 18.8% 14.0% C+ 62 —

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

14.1% 12.9% 13.1% 13.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

129

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.3% 7.6% 9.4% 11.4% D 43 —

137

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.6% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% D 42 —

157

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.1% 5.3% 9.1% 5.2% D 40 —

170

Anthony Seigler S Edge

9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% D 38 —

176

Caleb Durbin R

2.9% 1.6% 3.7% 2.7% D 37 —

192

Tsung-Che Cheng L Edge

7.1% 0.0% 20.0% 8.7% D 36 —

203

Connor Wong R

3.2% 8.0% 0.0% 4.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.9% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Henderson O'Neill Ward Taveras Contreras Abreu Yoshida

Legend

attack side — vs Baz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Willson Contreras — · 62

Coby Mayo — · 52

Wilyer Abreu — · 54

Pete Alonso — · 55

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 3 mph out 82°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

7:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

8:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 82°F, wind 3 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 55 C — COOL 40 0.216 93.7 9.5% 13.8%vs LHP 401 19.4% 22.2% 20.0% 18

2 Coby Mayo 52 C — HOT 55 0.192 92.3 9.0% 42.9%vs LHP 406 16.0% 40.0% 24.0% 10

3 Gunnar Henderson 46 D — COOL 99 0.181 89.5 7.2% 38.9%vs LHP 389 16.7% 11.1% 15.7% 26

4 Tyler O'Neill 44 D — HOT 115 0.154 89.8 8.2% 15.4%vs LHP 404 12.5% 50.0% 14.6% 8

5 Jeremiah Jackson 41 D — WARM 146 0.161 89.5 7.5% 14.3%vs LHP 391 9.8% 0.0% 11.1% 4

6 Taylor Ward 37 D — COOL 174 0.109 89.3 6.4% 18.2%vs LHP 388 7.1% 22.2% 12.9% 20

7 Leody Taveras 37 D — WARM 175 0.133 87.2 5.8% 9.1%vs LHP 420 3.1% 25.0% 11.5% 12

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 62 C+ — HOT 18 0.251 90.6 10.5% 37.5%vs RHP 406 22.5% 40.0% 31.1% 11

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C — HOT 45 0.196 90.2 9.9% 13.6%vs RHP 405 14.9% 40.0% 18.4% 29

3 Jarren Duran 43 D — · 129 0.146 89.5 9.1% 30.0%vs RHP 398 13.3% 0.0% 9.9% 24

4 Masataka Yoshida 42 D — WARM 137 0.142 88.6 4.7% 10.5%vs RHP 367 13.2% 60.0% 12.8% 19

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 40 D — · 157 0.164 86.1 6.0% 12.8%vs RHP 372 8.6% 10.0% 9.4% 38

6 Anthony Seigler 38 D — WARM 170 0.151 88.4 6.5% 10.0%vs RHP 346 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 29

7 Caleb Durbin 37 D — COOL 176 0.152 84.9 4.5% 20.7%vs RHP 373 8.9% 10.0% 9.7% 34

8 Tsung-Che Cheng 36 D — COOL 192 0.030 86.2 8.1% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 8

9 Connor Wong 34 D — COOL 203 0.100 85.9 5.7% 0.0%vs RHP 380 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.